The Premier League heads to Manchester for ‘Judgement Night’ as the bottom two at the end of tonight are eliminated.
The main question is whether defending champion Raymond van Barneveld can survive but he has come to form in his last couple of matches while Kim Huybrechts looks the most likely to be eliminated on his debut in the competition but who will join him?
Michael van Gerwen v James Wade
Both of these players are safe going into this match. Michael van Gerwen sits top while James Wade is in fourth.
Something I found surprising was how close the head-to-head record between this pair is; it is 13-10 in van Gerwen’s favour. This shows that Wade has got the beating of the Dutchman and on a good day he can beat Mighty Mike.
Wade is unbeaten in his last three while van Gerwen is unbeaten so far in the tournament. This will be a close game but van Gerwen will edge it and remain unbeaten. Michael van Gerwen to win and both players to win four or more legs (11/5) looks like the bet for this match as I think Wade will dig-in and push MVG all the way this evening.
The Machine has hit two checkouts over 100 in his last three so Wade Highest Match Checkout Over 95.5 (5/6). While Michael van Gerwen Highest Match Checkout Over 106.5 (5/6) is another one that should land as the Dutchman has hit four checkouts over that amount in his last four.
Van Gerwen is getting closer to a nine-darter as he has wired his dart at D12 on his last couple of attempts and Nine Dart Finish YES (20/1) is more of a reminder of a big priced shot.
Phil Taylor v Dave Chisnall
Again these two are safe from danger and that is why they play early on the night. Both of this have had mixed fortunes in their last few weeks making them hard to predict.
The head-to-head is quite conclusive in Taylor’s favour at 17-5 and some of those victories against Chisnall have been heavy defeats in finals. However Chizzy has been one of the most improved players in the last year and he can cause The Power a few problems tonight.
In relation to their averages over the past few weeks they have been similar (bar the 116 losing average of Taylor) and Chisnall Draw No Bet (5/2) looks too big as I think he can get a point out of tonight.
Chisnall Most 180s (8/11) looks a fairly solid bet as so far he has hit 29 maximums to Taylor’s 24. 13 of Taylor’s 24 have come in the last two weeks suggesting Taylor Over 2.5 Match 180s (8/11) would be another play.
Stephen Bunting v Kim Huybrechts
This is where the fun begins. It is quite straightforward for Bunting who only needs to win two legs to make sure he survives while Huybrechts needs to win and hope other results go his way.
This pair have only met twice previously and that has resulted in one win each. The Belgians only win came in Week Five against Raymond van Barneveld while Bunting has acquitted himself win grinding out draws if he hasn’t been able to win. Bunting Draw No Bet (5/6) is the safer play but I do think he will win and seal Huybrechts’ fate.
So far in the Premier League Huybrechts has hit 26 180s compared to Bunting’s 23. Therefore the Belgian averages over three per match while The Bullet hits just under three per match. If you go on that theory Huybrechts Most 180s (6/5) and Over 5.5 Match 180s (8/11) are worth looking at backing.
Adrian Lewis v Peter Wright
It is fair to say Adrian Lewis has been unpredictable during this campaign. The man from the Potteries would be safe with at least a draw if Raymond van Barneveld loses to Gary Anderson. While if Peter Wright was to lose he would then need Anderson to beat van Barneveld to survive.
This isn’t a match where I can be confident trying to predict an outcome. It is fair to say both players had shockers last week after drawing and playing well in Week Seven. Just because of the prices the Wright Draw No Bet (11/10) would be something for the more outright markets, however it isn’t something to put big stakes on as the head-to-head record is 9-5 in Lewis’ favour.
Usually you associate Jackpot to 180 hitting however so far in this campaign it is fairly even with Lewis hitting 17 to Wright’s 16. The bar has been set quite high therefore Under 6.5 Match 180s (8/11) looks the way to play that market.
When you compare the individuals highest checkouts from the previous eight weeks then you’d see that Wright has out-finished Lewis in five of those matches suggesting Wright Highest Match Checkout (evens) is worth a look.
Gary Anderson v Raymond van Barneveld
Last year’s winner Raymond van Barneveld might be safe by the time he plays if Kim Huybrechts fails to win and then all he would need to do is better Adrian Lewis’ result against Peter Wright (currently only one leg difference.)
The head-to-head form is 13-7 in van Barneveld’s favour but the World Champion Anderson will pull one back here as he has won his last three and looks in supreme form – Anderson to win (4/7.)
At a better price the Anderson to win, Most 180s and Highest Match Checkout (11/4) would have major appeal as Anderson has hit more 180s than Barney (25-23) and in my opinion Anderson’s finishing is better and has improved vastly over the last two years.
Highest Match Checkout Over 118.5 (5/6) because Anderson has hit a 152 and 145 checkouts in recent weeks, while van Barneveld has hit at 144.
Acca: Michael van Gerwen, Stephen Bunting, Gary Anderson to win & Dave Chisnall (Draw No Bet) @ 16.87/1.
Eliminated: Kim Huybrechts and Adrian Lewis