What a standard of darts we saw last week. However at times it makes it impossible to find the winner. Nothing best proves that that the last match of the night between World Champion Gary Anderson and World Number 1 Michael van Gerwen.
In their first matches they both set a quite different standard. Anderson was out of sorts and lost 7-1 to Stephen Bunting while van Gerwen blew James Wade away whitewashing him 7-0 in just over 11 minutes. Then Anderson goes and hits an average of close to 106 to beat MVG 7-5. Incredible stuff!
The action has moved to the Midlands and Birmingham for Week 13. It is the final week of the fifth match for two of the players and from next week each player will have one match to make the play-offs in the two weeks that will remain.
To tonight’s action!
Dave Chisnall v Adrian Lewis
Dave Chisnall sits in 2nd place; five points clear of joint 5th Raymond van Barneveld and tonight’s opponent Adrian Lewis. Barney beat the man from St Helens 7-5 last week and all in all he’ll be disappointed he didn’t get anything from the match.
There could be a problem for Chizzy if Lewis were to beat him here and then go on to beat van Barneveld in the final match of the night as he would only be a point away from being out of the play-off positions. However his crucial +21 leg difference should help him if he ended up level on points.
Lewis meanwhile dug deep to share the spoils in a 6-6 draw with Phil Taylor. But for me he’ll have to up his game to take anything from this match. Again looking at the odds it is clear how the bookies are underestimating Chisnall so Chisnall Draw No Bet (11/10) looks a storming price with all things considered.
The head-to-head battle is tied at nine apiece, so that proves how closely matched they are.
Again the pricing is somewhat staggering. Dave Chisnall Most 180s (evens) – this should be odds-on in my eyes because when you compare his match total 180s against Lewis’ he would have won on the last four occasions and when they met in Week 8 Chisnall hit four to Lewis’ three. This could potentially be bet of the night.
Raymond van Barneveld v Gary Anderson
The first match of the night for Raymond as he will face Adrian Lewis in the final match. When these two met in Week 9 it was Barney who needed to get something from the match to get himself out of the elimination places. That’s what he did in a pulsating 6-6 draw the defending Premier League Champion earned what looked like an unlikely place into the latter stages.
Since that night he hasn’t looked back as he has gone onto defeat Taylor, for a second time, and he ended MVG’s unbeaten run. Last week he beat Dave Chisnall 7-5 and he should go well again here playing with a newly found confidence and belief.
The aforementioned confidence and belief against a drained Anderson, who did admit he was struggling for motivation suggests that Raymond van Barneveld Draw No Bet (6/4) is well-worth a play considering his fine form in recent weeks and the fact he has a 65% win-rate against the Scotsman. Barney averaged just under 100 against Chisnall while Anderson went from 83 against Bunting to 106 against MVG; it depends on which Flying Scotsman turns up but for me the Dutchman could end the night in a play-off place.
Due to the on-off type of form Anderson is showing it is easier to side with Barney, a man in form. In his last three matches he has hit nine 180s, yes three in every match showing he is consistent. William Hill have set the bar for both players at 3.5 match 180s therefore you have to go van Barneveld Under 3.5 Match 180s (8/15).
Other than that it is quite difficult to spot any other trends that could lead to winning bets in this match. Stick with those two and I think you’ll get rewarded!
James Wade v Stephen Bunting
This on paper has Draw (10/3) written all over it, as was the case on the opening night when they first met in the Premier League. The lack of consistency by both makes it hard to side outright either way.
But if you want a securer bet then the Draw No Bet market is (5/6) for both players. My suggestion would be to go for Bunting as he has a 4-1 lead in the head-to-heads and he played ok to beat an off Anderson.
Wade was thrashed by MVG but he didn’t play too badly. He averaged 94 but not many would have been able to match Mighty Mike so you can forget that in this sort of aspect.
This is likely to go all the way, so Over 11.5 legs (11/10) would be another way into this match. Another point to make is that Wade has failed to register a 180 in four of his last six matches, that stat alone provides two more bets, starting with Bunting Most 180s (4/6) and Total Match 180s Under 4.5 (evens) as Bunting only hit four in his last three matches.
It is going to be tight, tense and cagey. I can’t say on paper it gets me too excited when looking at their records. Don’t expect too much from this in terms of entertainment bar Bunting’s Family Guy walk-on!
Michael van Gerwen v Phil Taylor
Not even Phil Taylor could have matched Michael van Gerwen last week. Looking at the outright prices and the recent form of this pair I’m surprised that MVG isn’t shorter, so Michael van Gerwen to win (8/11).
Taylor has only managed one win in his last five; two were also drawn but that hardly makes an appeal.
At a bigger price the Match Treble of MVG to win, Most 180s and Highest Match Checkout (3/1) is worth chancing. Despite being qualified Mighty Mike will want to get back to winning ways. In their last six matches Taylor’s highest finish is 81 while for van Gerwen he has hit a 154 and a 121. While on the 180 front in their last five respective matches the Dutchman has hit 16 maximums compared to The Power’s 13.
When you look at the above statistics then Taylor Highest Match Checkout Under 99.5 (5/6) should be considered means he isn’t firing in the big three darts combinations.
Adrian Lewis v Raymond van Barneveld
Well usually I would say these pairs first match will indicate how this will go but after Anderson beat van Gerwen after playing so poorly against Bunting suggests anything can happen.
If both of these win their first matches on the night then the winner of this would be in a play-off place come the end of the night, so there is plenty at stake.
In all honesty it wouldn’t be a game that I would get too involved in. Barney leads the head-to-head battle at 26-15 and knocked Lewis out of the UK Open in the 3rd Round. That followed Lewis’ opening night win over Raymond in this competition but both players are playing differently now and if you were wanting to side with someone I’d go Van Barneveld Draw No Bet (11/10).
Other than that there isn’t much that stands out due to the close nature of the market and the unpredictability of how both players will react after their earlier matches.
Acca: Chisnall DNB, Van Barneveld DNB, Bunting DNB & MVG to win @ 15.62/1.