Euro 2016: Day 5

It seems the first game of the day tends to be the profitable then it dwindles the later we go.

Spain did their job, just about, and their match landed a 5/2 and 1/2 bets. Unfortunately nothing else won but we were 1 corner short in the Ireland v Sweden game in a match where the referee decided to keep his cards in his pocket.

 

So after +3 from the Spain game, it turned into a lose of -1 following the second and third matches putting the overall total for this tournament at +3.10.

Day 5 has just the two games, both from Group F, which concluded the first round of group matches.


Austria v Hungary

Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Bordeaux

Kick Off: 17:00

Referee: Clement Turpin, (FRA)


Qualifying

Austria qualified top of their group seeing off nations like Russia and Sweden. They were unbeaten in those ten matches, winning nine and drawing just the once – their first match of the campaign against Sweden.

They are known as Das Nation and Marcel Koller has built this team on solid foundations considering they conceded just five goals. However they are very able going forward too.

The Alpines scored 22 goals with Marc Janko leading the line and bagging himself 7 in those ten matches and has a very useful supply line behind him with Marco Arnautovic and Martin Harnik.

 

Hungary finished 3rd in Group F behind Northern Ireland and Romania, who haven’t disgraced themselves in their opening games, especially the latter. For me these are one of the weakest teams in the tournament.

Bernd Storck has led this team to their first major tournament in 30 years and they got here by beating Norway 3-1 over their two legged play-off.

They scored 11 goals in their ten group matches and conceded nine goals, which implies they may not be involved in high scoring games. Having said that in their last 22 competitive matches the over and under 2.5 goals has been a fine line with it happening 50/50.


Outcome

Attacking Austria v a defensive Hungary is basically the easiest way to bill this game.

All three of Das Nation’s group games at Euro 2008 were under 2.5 goals and they only collected one point in a draw against Poland. They fell to two 1-0 defeats against Germany and Croatia in a tough group and Hungary are none of those three nations.

However they now have a good starting XI that works as a well oiled machine. They have plenty of goals in this team and if they are able to beat 40 year old Gabor Kiraly early on then I fancy them to net a couple.

 

The Magyars’ will play a 4-5-1 and make it difficult to play against them. They only won four games in qualifying and when they did so they were all by single goal margins – something that has done well this tournament.

In a bid to for goals Storck has named five strikers that shared seven goals between them in qualifying but they are up against one of the more under estimated sides in this tournament.

Austria are ranked 11th in the world compared to Hungary’s 18th. For me there could be a bit of a gulf in class here. I fancy the Alpine nation to claim three points in a tight game, so Austria to win and under 3.5 goals at 6/5 appeals.

Corners, corners, corners – it’s the way forward. Matches involving Magyars in qualifying averaged 11.3 corners compared to Austria’s 10.4. The over 8.5 looks the best way in but the price on over 9.5 could be worth the extra value.

Home based referee Clement Turpin is in charge. He refereed this season’s French Cup final between Marseille and PSG where he only issued one yellow. In his last 20 matches he has shown 62 yellows, at an average of 3.1 per game, and sent off four players.

 

He is one of the youngest at the tournament at 34 and has been put down as a controversial selection. Looking at his record at international level he is fairly inexperienced. One game in qualifying he took charge of was Hungary v Finland where he reached to his pocket for four yellows – three to Hungary players.

Hungary players picked up 29 cautions in qualifying compared to 14 for Austria. With Das Nation likely to be playing on the front foot a way in is with most booking points to Hungary.


Advice:

Over 8.5 Corners – 1/2

Hungary Most Booking Points – 7/10



Portugal v Iceland

Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint-Etienne

Kick Off: 20:00

Referee: Cüneyt Çakir, (TUR)


Qualifying

Portugal topped a five team group winning seven of their matches and falling to defeat against Albania in their opening match. They got off the mark in their second match courtesy of a last minute goal from Cristiano Ronaldo.

All seven matches they won were by a one goal margin, which suggests they’ll be involved in tight matches.

They are reliant on Ronaldo, who scored five of their 11 goals. Next in for goals was Joao Moutinho with two.

 

The Portuguese are lead by master tactician Fernando Santos, so they should be well drilled and that showed in conceding just five goals.

Iceland were narrowly edged out during qualifying for the 2014 World Cup and made amends here in a tricky group on paper finishing second behind Czech Republic.

The new European Championship format has helped this Nordic nation qualify for their first major tournament under the stewardship of former Sweden manager Lars Lagerback.

 

Playing 4-4-2 from the outset and winning their opening three matches to an aggregate score of 8-0 against sides like Turkey and Netherlands.

Known in their home nation as Our Boys, they managed to qualify with two games to go. They have a few household names including Swansea talisman Gylfi Sigurdsson, who was top scorer in the group, plus they have former Chelsea striker now veteran Eidur Gudjohnsen.

In their ten matches they scored 17 goals, Sigurdsson led the way with six goals, and they conceded six goals when facing some good teams.


Outcome

Team unity is going to be a big thing. Iceland are likely to have that whereas on previous Portugal performances they don’t play much as a team.

Our Boys have shot up the rankings in the last two years and are now in 35th spot but don’t let that fool you. They have some quality players that could do some damage in this tournament.

You have to expect the Portuguese to get out of this group however it may not be plain sailing against their three rivals. Emphasis as ever will be on Ronaldo to create and finish chances. If he performs then Portugal tend to do so.

Besiktas creative midfielder Ricardo Quaresma is a doubt for this game and that would be a blow to coach Santos, as the 32 year old has been very good in recent friendlies.

 

With Fabio Coentrao, Danny and Bernardo Silva not included due to injuries then Portugal might not have the strength in depth some nations do. They face an Iceland with plenty of quality and cutting edge.

As mentioned they’ll look to get Sigurdsson on the ball and Aron Gunnarsson will play alongside him. For a goal, then Augsburg striker Alfred Finnbogason could be worth a look following his season in Bundesliga – he netted 7 goals in 14 matches.

A former red card lover was Turkish official Cüneyt Çakir however he seems to have relented from that trend. At the age of 39 he is one of the more experienced officials in France after refereeing some big matches, including the 2015 Champions League final.

 

He has averaged just 3.45 yellow cards per match in his last 20 and has sent off just two players. Neither of these collected too many cards in qualifying and on top of what we’ve seen precede with lenient officiating low cards could be the way to go.

No penalties have been awarded in the tournament so far but this one does have a trigger finger. He gave two in the Champions League semi-final between Bayern Munich and Atletico Madrid and he returned to Turkey and awarded two in his next match. A penalty in the match at 4/1 is worth a small stakes look.

Corners have been the best way in but both of these sides are relatively low down the averages. Iceland averaged 7.8 in qualifying with Portugal around 9.4. With that disparity the prices don’t appeal in that market.

Overall tight games tend to follow Portugal around with very fine lines. These two sides met in qualifying in 2010 and 2011. In those two games 12 goals were scored and I do think we can see both teams scoring.

Iceland’s recent form in friendlies has been patchy winning against lowly nations to build confidence. Portugal have the tournament mentality edge and Portugal to win by a goal at 9/4 could be another way in.


Advice:

Both Teams to Score – 13/8

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