Euro 2016: Day 7

Slovakia did the business in the opening game to land the 13/10 DNB shout on them then Romania and Switzerland drew 1-1 landing the 6/1 correct score.

France failed to score in the first half and left winning it until the last few minutes when putting two past Albania. The Eagles only had two men cautioned meaning we were one card short.

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Yesterday added +2.05 profit to the total, which takes us up to +4.78 for the tournament so far.

Today are another three games and two of them look crackers. It’s D-Day for England as they face neighbours Wales while there is a tasty clash between Poland and Germany to end the day


England v Wales

Venue: Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens

Kick Off: 14:00

Referee: Felix Brych, (GER)


England are under pressure to win this following Slovakia’s 2-1 win over Russia yesterday. They come here on the back of a 1-1 draw against Russia, who are the worst team in this group.

Wales resumed major tournaments with a win over the Slovaks but did ride their luck at times. Gareth Bale opened the scoring with a free-kick, so England’s players will know not to give away cheap fouls close to their own goal but Jan Mucha should really have kept it out.

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The war of words in the build-up should give Roy Hodgson a simple team talk – go and prove Bale you are a team!

The Three Lions had plenty of opportunities against Russia but weren’t clinical. The first 20/30 minutes were the best they have played in a long while. A high speed passing and pressure game caused them trouble but failed to capitalise.

I’ve got a feeling this will be a tight niggly game with lots of bitty fouls, so one with no real flow.

The word on the grapevine is an unchanged England team, which would be a travesty considering Raheem Sterling didn’t impress and I’d be willing to replace him with Jamie Vardy to try and force Wales back.

 

Chris Coleman is likely to recall Wayne Hennessy after a back niggle prior to their opening match kept him out.

England have won 13 of the previous 19 head to heads scoring 35 goals and conceding just 11 but this is a totally different Wales team; one that has plenty of quality across its midfield and have a player in Bale capable of a moment of brilliance that can change any game.

Felix Brych takes charge of his first Euro 2016 match. This doctor of law isn’t one shy of cards if you consider he averaged 7 in last seasons Champions League.

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In his last 20 matches in all competitions he has dished out 87 yellows, at an average of 4.35, whilst he has dismissed five players. He doesn’t dish out as many red cards at international level but did send off Maxi Pereira against Costa Rica at the 2014 World Cup.

There was just one yellow card shared between these two in their respective opening matches and that went to Gary Cahill. If the Chelsea centre half sees one in this game he’ll miss the final group game against Slovakia.

Wales committed 17 fouls in their first match and I don’t think Mr Brych is the patient type when it comes to persistent fouling. He did referee the Welsh in a qualifying game at home to Belgium, which they won 1-0. Joe Allen saw yellow and he would be a leading candidate to collect a caution in this game with his sometime combative and cynical nature.

Like I said prior to the Russia game – I don’t trust this defence to keep clean sheets. Therefore I’m looking at the both teams to score market and odds against does appeal once more. It is worth pointing out that Wales have failed to score against England in their previous four meetings.

With sides needing results these games are likely to be more open leading to more goals and a similar amount of corners. Yesterday all three games reached double figures in terms of corners (11 x2 & 10). England took six of ten against Russia whilst Wales only had two in their first game. For me I’d be looking at the over 10.5 but that’s only because it is 11/10.


Advice:

Both Teams to Score – 5/4

A Sending off in the match – 7/2 (0.5pt)



Ukraine v Northern Ireland

Venue: Parc Olympique-Lyonnais, Lyon

Kick Off: 17:00

Referee: Pavel Kralovec, (CZE)


Another home nation that is desperate need of points, as are their opposition Ukraine. Both sides lost their opening matches to Poland and Germany respectively.

The Zbrina were in their game against Germany for large periods and nearly had an equaliser but for Jerome Boateng’s dramatic goal line clearance.

Coach Mykhaylo Fomenko has spoken about his sides need to defend rather than attack. This is definitely a game for the latter because they do have players in Andriy Yarmolenko and Yehven Konoplyanka.

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Northern Ireland set up to contain Poland and try to take a point from the game. It worked well in the first half but it only lasted six minutes of the second half. They didn’t give the Poles too much space in their defensive third and that’s why Poland failed to have too many clear-cut chances.

These two sides have meet on four previous occasions and there have been two draws and two Ukrainian wins. Yet there has only been four goals in those contests, which makes you feel this will be low scoring and a game where the first goal is hugely important.

Fomenko’s men did look threatening against the Germans the other night and I’m expecting them to narrowly win this. The way to go is probably through corners. If Northern Ireland sit back then Ukraine will be able to earn set pieces like they did against Germany in a match where they took 12 corners.

The whistleblower for this one is Pavel Kralovec from the Czech Republic. He is fairly inexperienced looking at his record and on that is highlights there is a chance he will show more cards on the international stage rather than a domestic one.

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With the way most referees have opted for leniency and keeping their cards in their pockets it isn’t worth looking at the cards market.


Advice:

Ukraine Over 6.5 Corners – 4/5

Ukraine to win 1-0 – 9/2 (0.50pt)



Germany v Poland

Venue: Stade de France, Paris

Kick Off: 20:00

Referee: Bjorn Kuipers, (NED)


This is one of the standout matches of the group stages. Two sides that qualified from the same group come head to head once more.

In qualifying both sides won once and Poland use the counter attack very well when they won at home. If Adam Nawalka employs similar tactics this time around then they could be triumphant once more.

This really will decide who tops the group and the winner knows they will get to play a 3rd place team rather than a fellow runner-up, so you’d feel the emphasis was to win for both.

The Polish defence was largely untested against Northern Ireland but tonight will be different. One of the players of the first round of group games was Toni Kroos for Germany with the way he controlled the midfield and dictated the play. If he’s in a similar vein of form you have to fancy a German win.

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People talk about German efficiency when it comes to tournament football yet despite their win they had a few shaky moments. Jerome Boateng’s goal line clearance and with a few minutes left a mix up between Manuel Neuer and Shkodran Mustafi nearly lead to a comedy own goal.

I think Poland are a team that will grow in confidence as this tournament gets older. They have the threats to cause this German back line plenty of problems and it would surprise me if Joachim Low made a few tactical changes to deal with these potential threats.

There have been 17 previous matches, which have resulted in 8 German wins, 5 draws and 4 Polish victories. In those games Germany have scored 23 times to Poland’s 16.

Bjorn Kuipers is the man in charge and he’s one of the more senior heads on this officiating roster.

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He has shown 78 yellow cards in his last 20 matches, at an average of 3.9. In this period he has dismissed three players.

In their two qualifying games there were nine cards in total split in a nice 4 and 5 ratio, which means the total cards market is worth a look in this one.

When you reflect on their opening matches both sides were involved in matches with corners. Germany took eight to Poland’s six. For me this will be similar to Die Mannschaft’s first match, so I’m expecting a high corner count.

The counts in qualifying were of an inconsistent nature with just six (all to Germany) in Warsaw, then when the Germans hosted the match had 11 corners.

With William Hill offering a corner and cards market I think there is a bet worth taking with them.


Advice:

Both Teams to Score – EVS

10-12 Corners & 4-6 Cards – 11/2 (0.5pt)

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