Week 3: Tottenham v Liverpool

Not many would have predicted last Saturday’s tea time offering between last season’s top two to finish goalless.

If you did then fair play but it did look like a game made for goals proving the stats book can be thrown out of the window in the first few weeks.

That knocked our P/L to -1.40 after two weeks


Tottenham v Liverpool

Venue: White Hart Lane

Kick Off: 12:30

Referee: Bobby Madley


Team News

Hugo Lloris is set be sidelined once more with a hamstring injury picked up on the opening day of the season meaning Michel Vorm is going to keep his place in goal.

 

Influential Moussa Dembélé serves the fifth game of his six-match ban whilst Kevin Wimmer is available.

Mauricio Pochettino’s headache surrounds how to get Harry Kane, Vincent Janssen and Dele Alli all into one side. The latter has recovered from illness, which saw him start on the bench against Crystal Palace.

Liverpool could revert back to the front three that caused Arsenal all sorts of problems with Saido Mane likely to return after featuring in their EFL Cup match during the week but there is a doubt over Philippe Coutinho (hamstring).

 

That would mean Daniel Sturridge could drop to the bench in a move Jürgen Klopp uses to show who’s boss following the England forwards comments about playing on the wing.

Emre Can is still a doubt with an ankle injury and is likely to need more time to get over that problem.

Klopp also has to decide whether to stick with James Milner at left back or revert back to Alberto Moreno.


Preview

Both sides come into this one with a win from their opening two games but it was Liverpool who fell to a surprise defeat at Premier League new boys Burnley last weekend.

Spurs recorded their first win here at White Hart Lane against Crystal Palace but it took them time to break down the Eagles defence.

The hosts have only lost twice at home in 2016 – to champions Leicester in January and to Southampton in their final home game of the last campaign.

These sides have been involved in eight meetings since 2012/13 and Liverpool have prevailed on five occasions with Spurs’ only success coming in November 2012.

Those eight meetings have yielded 28 goals meaning in the last four seasons this fixture averages 3.5 goals per game. If you fancy plenty of goals then William Hill are 2/1 for Over 3.5 goals.

One thing you’d expect to change is Spurs recent record in this fixture at the Lane – they’ve failed to score against Liverpool in their last three meetings at home.

 

However my first angle in is when the goals are scored. Like a lot of games goals tend to be scored in the second period. That is no different for this head to head with 17 of the 28 goals coming after the break.

Also on the head to heads then the corners market would definitely appeal. Those eight matches have seen: 11; 14; 12; 10; 12; 11; 5 & 13, so clearly the five corner match is a slight anomaly.

Add that to the stats so far from two matches. Games involving Spurs average 12.5 corners, whilst Liverpool average 11. That all adds up to this match seeing plenty. Over 10.5 is 13/18 with Bwin but in the advice section is the bet for me.

Bobby Madley is the man in the middle and so far he’s had one Premier League assignment. That saw him show three yellow cards and award a penalty (Man City v Sunderland).

 

Last season from his 26 top flight matches he showed 71 yellows and five reds, so a relatively low card make up.

The low card make up looks to suit this fixture. Cards have been as follow (red cards in brackets): 2; 3; 9; 4; 2; 3 (1); 2 & 3. Under 45 Booking Points is 5/4 with William Hill.

If Coutinho does play then the Liverpool front three with Mane and Firmino could get in behind the Spurs defence. One player that Bobby Madley has shown a yellow to in his last two Premier League matches overseeing Tottenham is Kyle Walker. The right back is 7/2 to be carded.

 

However one thing I like to look at when Mr Madley is in charge is for a penalty to be awarded, as he does have the trigger finger. He’s already awarded one this season and in the last season he pointed to the spot on 12 occasions, which is nearly a penalty awarded in every other game he takes charge of.

With the clampdown on grappling and holding from set pieces I think we are likely to see more penalties awarded. For one in this fixture it is 3/1 with Betfair.


Advice:

Highest Scoring Half: 2nd (21/20 – Stan James)

Over 11.5 Corners (11/10 – Bwin/ EVS – elsewhere)

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