Premier League: Chelsea v Liverpool

A tasty Friday night football offering as Liverpool travel to Stamford Bridge to take on Chelsea.

I’m hoping for a change of fortunes with both Manchester derby bets falling by the wayside. The cards bet saw six yellows, with the sixth coming in the 95th minute.

Still early days but the P/L stands at -4.90.


Chelsea v Liverpool

Venue: Stamford Bridge

Kick Off: 20:00

Referee: Martin Atkinson


Team News 

Chelsea will be without captain John Terry after straining ligaments in his ankle and foot against Swansea.

Embed from Getty Images

 

Summer signing David Luiz looks set to make his second debut for the Blues in place of Terry – his first debut came in Chelsea’s 1-0 defeat by Liverpool at the Bridge in 2011.

Fellow signing Marcos Alonso has trained all week and is in contention for a starting berth.

Jurgen Klopp could name an unchanged side after beating champions Leicester 4-1 in their first home game of the season with Emre Can still sidelined.

That means Philippe Coutinho would make his 150th appearance for the Reds in all competitions, while James Milner is set to play in his 50th game for the club.

However Klopp will be hoping that Dejan Lovren is available after missing the game against the Foxes.

Embed from Getty Images

 


Preview

Antonio Conte’s men dropped their first points of the season in a controversial 2-2 away at Swansea.

They have a perfect two from two home record after wins over West Ham and Burnley respectively.

Liverpool won their second game of the season against Leicester, which confirmed they are a very attacking and free scoring side.

I’m jumping straight in to a bet with Both Teams To Score looking extremely likely. It has already landed in three of four Premier League games for both sides this season

Looking back on the last eight head to head’s dating back to the 2012-13 season then seven of eight Premier League meetings have seen both teams scoring meaning it’s of a high probability.

Diego Costa has four goals for the Blues whilst the Reds have shared the goals with Philippe Coutinho, Adam Lallana, Saido Mane and Roberto Firmino all on two, which just highlights the goalscoring angle into this fixture.

Embed from Getty Images

 

22 goals have been scored in the last eight top flight meetings at an average of 2.75 goals per game. The breakdown of goals scored is as follows: 4; 2; 2; 3; 2; 3; 2 & 4.

At Stamford Bridge the breakdown is 2; 3; 2 & 4. The latter came in Liverpool’s 3-1 success last season.

The more you look at it then Total Match Goals 2 or 3 at 11/10 looks quite enticing having landed in six of the eight matches.

There is no obvious trend between first half and second half goals. 13 of the 22 goals in the last eight meetings came before the break with nine in the second 45 minutes.

This season Chelsea games have featured three first half goals compared to Liverpool’s eight. The second half sees the most goals with ten in the Blues fixtures and nine for the Reds.

Martin Atkinson is the man in the middle for his fourth Premier League game. So far he’s shown just six yellows in his three matches at an average of two per game.

He took charge of PSV v Atletico Madrid in the Champions League in midweek, showing four yellows, so he has a low card make up so far.

Embed from Getty Images

 

This season Chelsea have picked up 14 yellows, at an average of 3.5 per game compared to Liverpool’s 10, at 2.5 per game. On that evidence you’d say the hosts would collect most booking points and considering they have the likes of Costa, Luiz and Ivanovic in their side it wouldn’t look the worst of bets.

Atkinson refereed both of these sides four times last season. He showed 19 yellows in the Chelsea matches compared to 11 in games involving Liverpool.

Eden Hazard and Branislav Ivanovic were both cautioned twice by this official and with Liverpool’s attacking threats the former will have plenty of tracking back to do and the latter can be known to leave his foot in.

From a perspective of corners then this season Chelsea matches 9.75 to Liverpool’s 10, so I wouldn’t be expecting too many – as has been the theme four weeks in.

The head to head matches have seen 88 corners at an average of 11 per game. Those averages suggest the 9-11 Corners bracket on Bet365, which is available at 15/8.

A market that I mentioned briefly in the Manchester derby piece was the half time/full time one.

I’m expecting Liverpool to start on the front foot in matches it could see them going into the break with the lead, then in the second half we’ll see a Chelsea fightback. Liverpool/Draw is 16/1 with Bet Victor if you have a similar train of thought.

With goals expected in this one the goalscorer markets are definitely something we can try to utilise in our favour.

On current form Diego Costa is the man to be with having scored four goals and he is 8/5 with Bwin anytime. He’s only managed to score once against the Reds but on current form is hard to discount if Liverpool are forced to play Lucas at centre half.

Embed from Getty Images

 

The man worth looking at for Chelsea would be Eden Hazard anytime at 9/4 with Bwin. The Belgian has scored in both home matches this season and has scored four goals against Liverpool since joining in 2012.

As usual you’re getting a bigger price for Liverpool players and it’s just finding the right one.

The Chelsea back four & N’Golo Kante will be pre occupied with the front three of Coutinho, Mane and Firmino, which could allow space for the Reds midfielders.

During the European Championships Adam Lallana was getting into some good positions without scoring.

Embed from Getty Images

 

So far this season he has two goals for Liverpool and one for England seemingly having added goals to his game. Klopp looks to have given him a free reign in the Liverpool midfield and this is a game where he could get some space meaning the 5/1 looks well worth a small punt.


Advice:

Both Teams to Score (4/6 – 188Bet)

Adam Lallana Anytime (5/1 – Coral – 0.5pt)

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s