The World Cup semi-finals get underway this evening and attention turns to St Petersburg for France against Belgium.
One of these teams will be staying here and playing in Saturday’s third-place play-off while one will advance to Sunday’s final in Moscow to write their own piece of footballing history.
But will it be Didier Deschamps or Roberto Martinez leading his team to a World Cup Final?
France vs Belgium (19:00)
Two European neighbours full of footballing giants face-off to see who will play in Sunday’s showpiece.
Team News:
Blaise Matuidi is set to return for France in place of Corentin Tolisso after serving a suspension during the Uruguay quarter-final victory.
Belgium are without Thomas Meunier. The full-back picked up his second caution of the tournament against Brazil meaning he serves a one-match ban.
Roberto Martinez could bring Dedryck Boyata in to replace Meunier if sticking to the back four that served them well against Brazil.
Route to this stage:
| France | Belgium |
2-0  vs Australia |
3-0 vs Panama |
| 1-0 vs Peru |
5-2 vs Tunisia |
| 0-0 (D) vs Denmark | 1-0 vs England |
| 4-3 vs Argentina |
3-2 vs Japan |
| 2-0 vs Uruguay |
2-1 vs Brazil |
Reflection:
France came through their quarter-final against Uruguay with a 2-0 win but it was one of the least convincing 2-0 victories you are likely to see.
Les Blues netted from their first shot on target, which came from a free-kick headed home by Raphael Varane.
The second was a howler from Fernando Muslera that allowed Antoine Griezmann’s shot through his hands.
Other than that they created very little despite dominating the ball and finishing the game with 62% of possession. Many would say it was efficient, some would argue otherwise.
When looking at Expected Goals in that game then France only finished with 0.46xGF while Uruguay generated a total of 1.01xGF.
Belgium rode their luck in the early stages against Brazil and were lucky not to fall behind when Thiago Silva hit the woodwork.
However, they grew into the game and were rewarded with a Fernandinho own goal, which was followed by a wonderful attack and strike from Man City’s Kevin de Bruyne.
Roberto Martinez’s change of tactics and formation seemed to work in that first half to stifle the Samba Stars but they were forced to dig-in during the second half.
Brazil did pull one back from a number of chances they created and should have probably equalised from the chances they cut out.
That game saw Brazil finish with a 2.87xGF while Belgium generated a total of 0.54xGF suggesting they were efficient in-front of goal.
In terms of Expected Goals For across the tournament:
Belgium – 11.66xGF (second best) – average of 2.33xGF per game.
France – 6.30xGF – average of 1.26xGF per game
Didier Deschamps has a wealth of attacking options to call upon but his pragmatic approach at times has seemingly held back this French team.
His focus is on defending when you consider they have conceded just 3.71xGA, which is the best of the four teams left in the competition and that’s proven by the three clean sheets to their name.
Similarly, Belgium have conceded fewer than 1xGA in three of their five matches so far and despite conceding five goals, they haven’t given their opponents clear sights of their goal on too many occasions.
Referee:
Uruguayan official Andreas Cunha has been selected to take charge of this game and it’ll be his third of the competition.
He’s already refereed a France game and it was their opener against Australia. Les Blues won 2-1 and a penalty was given to each side plus it featured an own goal, which won it for the French.
Four players entered his notebook that day, three Socceroos and Tolisso was the Frenchman to have his name taken.
His other game saw him oversee Spain’s 1-0 win over Iran where two players were booked, so six yellows in two games at an average of three per game.
Corners and Cards:
| France | Belgium | |
| Total Match Corners | 31 | 56 |
| Total Corners Taken | 17 | 30 |
| Total Corners Against | 14 | 26 |
| Total Yellow Cards | 8 | 7 |
| Total Fouls Committed | 73 | 72 |
| Total Fouls Suffered | 75 | 64 |
From a corners point of view, Belgium have been excellent with three of their five games reaching double figures unlike any of France’s games.
Both sides have taken the most corners in three of their five games, so the most corners market isn’t really one to look at unless you like the averages with Belgium taking averaging six corners per game to France’s 3.4. Belgium Most Corners (5/4) might appeal to some.
On the cards and fouls front then Blaise Matuidi returns from a ban and has committed ten fouls at this World Cup plus this referee cautioned the midfielder in their opening game.
Olivier Giroud and Paul Pogba have also given away ten fouls, so aren’t afraid of making their presences felt. Pogba is one in this game that could get caught out of position and see yellow for a cynical foul.
Pogba is one of the most fouled players at this tournament and has been on 12 occasions but teammate Lucas Hernandez has been fouled more (13).
Kylian Mbappe has been targeted too, especially by Uruguay, having being fouled ten times.
For Belgium, Kevin de Bruyne is their most fouled played and he’s also committed the joint-most fouls with three.
If the Red Devils are leading and they get a set-piece then he could be a candidate to get a card for time wasting.
Angles:
This could be a terrific semi-final with two quality attacks on show but splitting them is proving somewhat difficult.
France have arguably been playing within themselves so far given their xG ratios in games and the players they have at their disposal.
They can see plenty of the ball in games but fail to do a lot with it and that’s been part of the criticism aimed at Deschamps but it’s been an effective way of playing.
Les Blues have a solid spine and we’ll know that Kante will do the dirty work allowing Pogba more freedom to link up with the front three.
Belgium have been devastating on the counter-attack and showed that once again for their second goal versus Brazil but I doubt the French will get caught out just as easily with Kante screening the back four.
The way Martinez set out in that Brazil game reverting to a back four, which saw Marouane Fellaini in midfield allowing de Bruyne to play in a more advanced role, worked wonders.
We saw Romelu Lukaku at somewhere near his best during that Brazil quarter-final. His strength in holding up the ball and holding off opponents while he had the directness about him we don’t see all that often.
If the same Red Devils turn up as did on Friday then they will give this French unit a stern test and would be surprised if Les Blues managed to keep another clean sheet.
You’d be surprised if Thibaut Courtois kept a clean sheet too given the chances they let up in the second half against Brazil.
If France creates the same amount of chances as Brazil did then they’ll be punished by one of Griezmann, Mbappe or Giroud and despite only 40% of semi-finals since 1998 seeing both teams scoring, it is a bet high on the list in this contest.
However, the biggest quandary comes in the outright and to qualify markets. Martinez has a selection headache whether to stick with the back four or revert to his back three that saw them get out of the group and win their Round of 16 game.
But against Japan, their weaknesses were highlighted and if he does go back to it in the absence of Meunier then that could play into the hands of the French.
With that in mind, I’d be leaning towards Les Blues and the double result market could be of interest.
Both sides have been level at the break in three of their five games and semi-finals generally play out a cagey opening 45 minutes.
Even though the calibre of this Belgium attack being strong, I can see France continuing the trend of restricting their opponents to limited clear-cut sights of their goal.
With Griezmann and Mbappe likely to have joy if Belgium goes with the wing-backs then the Draw/France (21/4 – Unibet) looks a decent bet.
I did highlight that I’d expect BTTS (5/6) being a solid approach to this game with the world-class attacking players on the pitch and we did see Hugo Lloris forced into a smart save to deny Uruguay, so we’d expect this Belgium frontline to carve out something of note.
I just have my doubts about this Belgium side whether that be tactically or game management, so putting everything I’ve said together the bet I’m going for is in the anytime correct score market.
Look at France to be leading 2-1 at any point in this game. This can land if France go 2-0 up and the Belgian pressure finally earns a consolation or if it’s 1-1 with Les Blues able to utilise the space in the channels vacated by the likes of Yannick Carrasco and Boyata.
If the French midfield three hold firm with Kante nullifying the threat posed by de Bruyne and Hazard then that should set Les Blues up nicely and with the talented Mbappe likely to enjoy the freedom opposite Griezmann then this France side look the ones likely to progress.
2-1 France Anytime Score (7/2 – Betfair/Paddy Power – 0.5pt)
SCFCKirbsSports 