Didier Deschamps masterminded another French victory and one that takes them to their second major final two years on from their Euro 2016 runners-up berth.
It was another set-piece that paid dividends with Samuel Umtiti netting early in the second half then we saw some strong and resolute defending from Les Blues.
Today it’s all about England in their first World Cup Semi-Final since 1990 and the first of my lifetime!
Croatia vs England (19:00)
Will Gareth Southgate guide his young Three Lions to a World Cup Final to face France or will Zlatko Dalić’s Croatia spoil the dream?
Team News:
Jordan Henderson has trained after suffering from a tight hamstring following the quarter-final win over Sweden.
The only doubt is surrounding Leicester forward Jamie Vardy, who tweaked his groin against Colombia.
Croatia have concerns over the wellbeing of a number of players following the amount of football they’ve played over the last six days.
The main doubt is over Sime Vrsaljko, who picked up a knee injury in extra-time against Russia and his club, Atletico Madrid, are trying to stop him from playing.
There were knocks sustained by Danijel Subašić and Mario Mandžukić during the Russia game but both are said to be fit.
Route to this stage:
| Croatia | England |
2-0  vs Nigeria |
2-1 vs Tunisia |
| 3-0 vs Argentina |
5-1 vs Panama |
| 2-1 vs Iceland |
1-0 (L) vs Belgium |
| 1-1 (D) vs Denmark – won on pens | 1-1 (D) vs Colombia – won on pens |
| 2-2 (D) vs Russia – won on pens | 2-0 vs Sweden |
Reflection:
England put in a very good display to see off Sweden 2-0, which saw Harry Maguire net his first goal at international level.
The Three Lions controlled that game quite well and even though Jordan Pickford made a couple of smart saves, the Swedes never created anything too clear-cut.
Jordan Henderson has been a lynchpin in protecting the back three while the likes of John Stones, Kyle Walker and Maguire have all been able to drive into midfield areas.
In that quarter-final victory, the England defence restricted Sweden to an xG tally of 0.56 showing it was a dominant display.
Croatia looked weary the further the game went. It was their second game in six days that they had played out the full 120 minutes and the penalties that followed.
There were plenty of aching and struggling bodies in the Blazers side that won on penalties once again and that could prove problematic against this young Lions side.
The Croatian fatigue is highlighted by the 0.07xGF tally racked up in extra-time and that’s despite Domagoj Vida scoring from a set-piece.
Prior to that, they had created the better chances, which saw them end the 90 minutes with a 2.24xGF compared to Russia’s 1.2xGF.
In terms of Expected Goals For across the tournament:
Croatia – 7.72xGF (non-penalty) – average of 1.36xGF per 90 minutes.
England – 8.73xGF (non-penalty) – average of 1.75xGF per 90 minutes.
On xGF, you can make a solid case to back England to triumph in regular time and that is solidified when you look to the other end of the pitch.
The Three Lions have conceded a total of 3.97xGA (non-penalty) – just 0.79xGA (non-penalty) per game.
When you consider that England have conceded four goals at this World Cup, one of which was from 12-yards against Tunisia, then that is pretty much spot on for what they have achieved and shows how well the back three have worked.
Whilst Croatia have only conceded the same amount of goals as England over the course of their matches, there is a case to be made that they are over-achieving.
Four goals conceded, one of which came in extra-time but their non-penalty xGA suggests they should have conceded more goals with their figure at 6.90xGA.
That suggests the Subašić has been busy in goal, keeping shots out while it shows the wastefulness of their opponents in previous contests.
If Croatia continues with their average of 1.38xGA per game then they could find themselves in trouble.
Referee:
Turkish whistleblower Cuneyt Cakir takes charge of his third match at this World Cup when officiating this semi-final tie.
In his previous two matches, he has dished out nine yellow cards and awarded a penalty.
The 41-year-old has a history with the England national team and English clubs. He angered Sir Alex Ferguson when sending off Nani in a Champions League tie at Old Trafford.
The former insurance broker has taken charge of five previous England matches where the Three Lions are undefeated but he did send Steven Gerrard off in a game against Ukraine back in 2013.
His last England game was in November 2016 when the Three Lions beat Scotland 3-0 at Wembley in a game where he cautioned Gary Cahill and Wayne Rooney.
Corners and Cards:
| Croatia | England | |
| Total Match Corners | 56 | 39 |
| Total Corners Taken | 26 | 30 |
| Total Corners Against | 30 | 9 |
| Total Yellow Cards | 12 | 5 |
| Total Fouls Committed | 78 | 53 |
| Total Fouls Suffered | 80 | 69 |
*All above stats include Extra-Time!
Croatia’s matches have seen plenty of corners with matches against Nigeria (11), Iceland (15) and Russia (14) seeing double figures.
Those corners have generally been split between the sides that has resulted in them giving more away than they’ve taken and that could be dangerous against an England side that have been excellent from set-pieces.
None of England’s five matches have yet to reach double figures but three of their five matches have finished on totals of nine, all with the corner count showing 7-2 in the Three Lions favour.
I went with the England Corner Handicap on Saturday against Sweden, which won, and given the width that they play with against a potentially fatigued opponent then it is worth looking at once more.
The bar is -1 at 5/6 for England and that’s won in four of five matches. Just the Panama game where the Three Lions went goal crazy saw that bet fail to land but you could take the -2 bar at 11/8 with that also landing four times.
Despite the cards being wiped after the quarter-finals, the players must be careful given the referee’s history of showing red cards.
There are players on both sides breathing a sigh of relief that the cards have been wiped with a number having one to their name already.
Neither side has seen a player pick up two yellows or a red card, so suspensions haven’t been a concern for either manager.
On the FIFA stats, Ivan Strinic and Mario Mandžukić have both committed nine fouls, plus both have previously been cautioned.
Ivan Rakitić has given away six fouls but ha been one of the most fouled players at this competition having won 14 free-kicks.
The Croatians have picked up 12 cards in five games compared to England’s five, so straight away Croatia Most Booking Points (10/11) is a bet that comes to mind.
For a card, I’d be looking towards Ivan Strinic (4/1). The full-back will have his work cutting out with Kieran Tripper from right wing-back, plus there will be Raheem Sterling and Jesse Lingard drifting to that side of the pitch throughout this game.
The 30-year-old was cautioned in the first half against Russia and was taken off in the second half to avoid being sent-off. He could have his hands full and that 4/1 does look a tempting price.
Angles:
From an England point of view, this will prove a stern test but one that Southgate’s side should negotiate.
The fresher, younger English players can take full advantage of these tired, aging Croatian legs, who have endured not just physical fatigue but mental fatigue having gone to penalties the last twice.
You’d imagine a tight opening but as tiredness hits the Croatian players then it could open up, especially in the second half, so things could fall into England’s hands.
England will continually threaten from set-pieces with eight of their 11 goals coming via that method, so do look towards the likes of Stones and Maguire adding to their goals tallies.
Most bookmakers will do specials on England to score from a set-piece with the header being a likely route to goal. Maguire or Stones to score a header (13/2) looks about right and they’ve proven successful thus far.
Considering the Three Lions have scored 11 goals, a joint-record along with 1966, on top of the xGF and xGA, which are in England’s favour then a punt on England to Win (27/20) looks to be a solid enough bet.
I’m trying not to be swayed by patriotism but I do believe this will be won, like last night, in 90 minutes.
There is a #YourOdds with William Hill I do like given everything I’ve highlighted.
Croatia Most Cards, England Most Corners & England to Qualify (7/2) has to be of appeal given the Croatians have had more cards while England have a better xGF and xGA while they’ve taken more corners.
But for me, the main bet has to surround England goals and corners. This one at just shy of EVS looks a great bet to me.
I do expect England to score with the pace and flair from open play, plus their strength from set-pieces while the Three Lions average six corners per game so far, so this looks a great bet.
England 1+ Goals & 5+ Corners (10/11 – Sky Bet – 1pt)
SCFCKirbsSports 