Tuesday’s Football: 04/12/18

I’m scratching my head, working out how West Brom failed to win that game by half time let alone by the final whistle.

Jay Rodriguez and Hal Robson-Kanu missed sitters in the opening half hour before Matt Phillips struck the crossbar at the end of the first half. Harvey Barnes finally broke the deadlock but Brentford equalised late through substitute Lewis MacLeod.

However, both cards angles came in during the La Liga game. Each Team 30+ Booking Points at 15/8 was the main angle there!

There is Premier League action and I’m going for two home teams in a corners double.


5+ Team Corners (10/11 – Sky Bet)

Bournemouth vs Huddersfield (19:45)
West Ham vs Cardiff (19:45)

If you read Saturday’s blog then you’ll know Bournemouth are a good side for corners and they landed the bet that day despite being away at champions Man City.

The Cherries have taken the second-most corners in the English top-flight (84), which equates to an average of six per game.

Five of their seven home games have seen them take five or more corners and with them having lost their last four matches, Eddie Howe will be determined to rectify that and get them back to winning ways.

They play good attacking football with plenty of creativity and that could see them rack up the corners here at Dean Court.

The Cherries took eight corners and six corners in their two games against Huddersfield last season with the former coming here in a 4-0 win, which saw Callum Wilson bang in a hat-trick.

Look at Wilson to score in this one and I’d also be looking at Bournemouth Race to 2 Goals (10/11 – William Hill) also with how they like to get forward and can dominate teams in the final third.

Put them with West Ham, who should be able to record a second straight win against Cardiff.

The Hammers average 4.93 corners per game this season but here at the London Stadium, that rises to 6.14.

They’ve taken five or more corners in four of their seven home games, including 10 against Spurs and Burnley then eight against Man City.

You look at their opponents Cardiff and see that they’ve given away five or more corners in all six of their away games this season and in 11 of 13 games in all.

Their away record sees no wins, one draw and five defeats resulting in 12 goals conceded and just two scored, so you feel the Bluebirds could be up against it in the capital.

It could be the type of backs-to-the-wall job from Cardiff that sees plenty of deflections and blocks go behind for corners, so that total of five should be achieved.

Felipe Anderson has been shining in recent weeks for the Hammers and his presence along with Marko Arnautovic’s should see the corners and the three points going to Manuel Pellegrini’s men.


Football Note

Brighton vs Crystal Palace (19:45) – Glenn Murray to be carded (7/2 – Bet365)

Glenn Murray has seven goals for Brighton and only played the final 11 minutes on Saturday, he should be fresh enough to start here and ruffle a few Eagles feathers.

He sits top of the fouls committed charts on 44 and most of those will be aerial challenges but it’s still something that’s worth pointing out.

The forward has been booked twice this season, both have been in home games and referee Kevin Friend, who takes charge of this proclaimed derby, issued one of those cautions.

While this bet is 2/1 with some firms, it looks quite tasty considering the fouls he commits and if Brighton are leading, he could leave his foot in and try to break play up.

It’s worth pointing out that second and third in the fouls committed list are Palace’s Luka Milivojević and James McArthur.

Those three players all to be carded comes out at 66/1 on the Bet365 ‘Bet Builder’, while on the ‘Same Game Multi’ with Paddy Power or Betfair is nearly 70/1.

 

 

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Monday’s Football: 03/12/18

Two days of December and two winners on the board with Atletico Madrid landing the -1 corner handicap at 11/8 with ease. Despite drawing the game 1-1, they out-cornered Girona 9-2 for the winning bet.

 It was a good day all round really. The main bet landed, the bet builder at EVS in Serie A came good while it was a half win on the +1.25 AH Everton line after their late concession when falling to defeat in the Merseyside derby.

Let’s make it three in a row with a bet at the Hawthorns in the Championship.


West Brom vs Brentford (20:00)

A win here could send West Brom three points off top spot, and with their fixture against Aston Villa on Friday night, then they could start the weekend top of the Championship tree.

Darren Moore’s side did have a wobble when they were missing key players but they’ve turned things around with three wins on the spin, including an impressive 4-1 dismantling of Leeds.

At home, they’ve won six of their nine games and have scored 26 goals in those games, so have been difficult to stop.

Their front trio have been in excellent form with Dwight Gayle and Jay Rodriguez both bagging nine so far, while Harvey Barnes has seven.

Not only does Barnes have seven goals, but he’s also chipped in with a further three assists and Matt Phillips has five.

This Baggies side like to attack and with Kieran Gibbs getting forward from his full-back position, then there will be crosses into the box and pull-backs to runners from deep.

They aren’t reliant on those forwards either, as they showed in Wednesday’s 2-1 win at Swansea when defenders Craig Dawson and Ahmed Hegazi overturned an early 1-0 deficit to pick up another three points.

Seven games into the Thomas Frank reign at Brentford and it hasn’t been easy going with the Bees having only won once and lost the other six.

The margin of defeat has been just one goal in those six games and they’ve pushed promotion hopefuls Sheffield United and Middlesbrough all the way at Griffin Park.

That form has been consistent with that of their away record, which reads no wins in nine attempts, including defeats at Derby (3-1) and more recently QPR (3-2).

It has to be a concern that they’ve been leaking goals of late. Eight goals have been put past them in the last three games and that could be problematic up against this red-hot West Brom attack.

West Brom Win & BTTS (12/5 – Betfair) is a good-looking angle with the Baggies having conceded in nine of their ten wins, plus they face one of the Championship’s most potent striker in Neal Maupay, who has 12 to his name this season.

At just above EVS is a home win with goals. This has won in all six of their home wins this season, while it’s landed in their last three too.

West Brom to Win & Over 1.5 Goals (5/4 – Various)

                                                                                                                                   

Football Note

Levante vs Athletic Club (20:00)

I was looking at cards here with Bilbao having picked up the most yellow cards in La Liga (47) while Levante have collected the joint-second most (43), so with two robust sides meeting they looked the option.

However, the bookies have priced up the markets accordingly. Both of their meetings last season saw 60 bookings points, and for perfect symmetry, both teams picked up 30 booking points in those matches.

Each Team 30+ Booking Points (15/8 – Sky Bet) is a bit tight despite their respective cards stats and recent history. Levante have picked up 30+ in three of their six home games while it’s landed in five of Bilbao’s six away games.

Even going along those lines sees 30+ Bilbao Booking Points (4/6), so despite cards being the angle the prices are skinny.

One thing worth referencing here is that the referee, Santiago Jaime Latre, is a very heavy issuer in the second half of games, so if it’s a low card count by the break, then you can back them in-play.

His only Bilbao game this season saw 60 booking points with all of those coming in the second half. In his last five matches, he’s shown 20 cards with 17 of those coming in the final 45 and in one card he showed three cards from the 88th minute to full time!

 

 

Sunday’s Football: 02/12/18 

A cracking start to the month with the 7/4 winner, as Bournemouth recorded their fourth corner in the 90th minute to land our bet.

Anyone on the preview could have taken the Man City to Win & BTTS (6/4), which also came good in the Citizens 3-1 win, while Andrej Kramaric scored from the spot for Hoffenheim at 8/5.

It’s Derby Day in the Premier League but there’s a bet that looks decent in La Liga and it’s in the corner markets once more.


Girona vs Atletico Madrid (15:15)

Atletico Madrid make the journey to the north-east of Spain, just two points behind league leaders Sevilla heading into this game at the Estadi Municipal.

They swept aside Monaco in the first half of their Champions League match on Wednesday’s night with goals from Koke and Antoine Griezmann to make it seven matches unbeaten in all competitions.

However, Atleti are ten games unbeaten in La Liga after having settled for a 1-1 against fellow title chasers Barcelona, which saw Ousmane Dembele cancel out Diego Costa’s opener.

This will be a tough trip to make for Diego Simeone’s side with Girona unbeaten in six in all competitions (W3, D3).

Last weekend’s 3-1 win at Espanyol saw them race into a two-goal lead inside six minutes following Cristhian Stuani’s double.

The only criticism of the hosts can be their lack of goals. They’ve only scored 16 in 13 games and are reliant on Stuani, who has scored ten of those.

Both of their H2Hs last season ended in draws and it was a fascinating 2-2 draw here in August 2017. Girona lead 2-0 through Stuani’s brace inside half an hour before Atleti mounted a late comeback. Simeone’s ten-men earned a point despite having had Griezmann sent-off earlier in the second half.

For the bet, I’m looking towards the ‘Corner Handicap’ market.

Atletico Madrid have taken the most corners in La Liga (99), averaging 7.62 per game.

In complete contrast are Girona. They’ve taken the fewest corners in the Spanish top-flight (43) and average just 3.31 per game.

Straight away, those figures hint that Atleti should dominate on the corner front and they’ve out-cornered their opponents in ten of their 13 games.

Of those ten games, they’ve taken two or more corners than their opponents in nine of those, including in four of their six away matches to date.

Girona’s last home game saw them fail to register a corner, while they’ve lost on the -1 handicap in games here against Real Madrid, Eibar, Rayo Vallecano, plus that Leganes match meaning backing their opponents -1 is four from seven.

Atleti have game-changing players, who can make an impact, and they have generally delivered on the corners front this season, so with some bookies going as short as EVS or 11/10 for this bet, then I’m taking it with Bet365.

Atletico Madrid -1 Corner (11/8 – Bet365)


Football Shortlist

Liverpool vs Everton (16:30) – Everton +1.25 Asian Handicap (39/40 – Bet Victor)

This bet at nearly EVS looks a cracking way into the Merseyside derby.

The +1.25 Asian Handicap in Everton’s favour means if the Toffees win or draw it’s a full win, if they lose by one goal it’s a half win but a defeat by two or more goals is a full loss.

Marco Silva’s men have won once, drawn three and lost twice on their travels. Yet just one of those defeats saw a full loss of your stake on this bet, with that being the 2-0 loss at Arsenal.

In their goalless draw against Chelsea, Silva set his side up to defend and make them difficult to beat, and that proved the case.

If they follow that then this could be tight and cagey because that game saw them produce their lowest xG figure and with Liverpool being solid at the back but yet to really hit their straps in the attacking third, a low-scoring contest could be on the cards.

Last season, Liverpool came into the derby at Anfield on the back of a Champions League win over Spartak Moscow. That derby ended in a 1-1 draw, so going off similar thinking, then you have to question whether the midweek exertions the Reds had in Paris could take their toll on them here with their neighbours coming here with fresher legs.

 

Roma vs Inter Milan (19:30) – BTTS & Over 10 Corners (EVS – Bet365)

Seven of their last eight meetings have seen BTTS with Roma failing to score at the San Siro back in October 2015 being the only let down.

Roma home games are four from six for BTTS while it’s landed in two of Inter’s last three Serie A away trips.

From a corner perspective, these are two of the better sides in this league with Inter averaging eight per game while Roma average six per games.

All of the last six matches have seen the corner count reaching double figures but one of those did fall on exactly ten: 11, 18, 12, 13, 10 & 13.

With the meeting of these two usually delivering then it looks wise to go in once more.

 

Saturday’s Sport: 01/12/18

It’s another fine Saturday of sport with Premier League, Championship and the FA Cup meaning a reduced Football League fixture list. My main focus has been on the top two tiers with the main bet in the game involving the Champions.

On the horse racing front, there is top quality action from Newbury, with the Ladbrokes Trophy, and Newcastle, with the Fighting Fifth, featuring dual Champion Hurdle winner Buveur D’Air and Samcro.


Man City vs Bournemouth (15:00)

On a normal weekend, this match would be one on the TV but with ‘Derby Day’ tomorrow it sees Man City having a rare 3pm kick-off.

The Citizens have started this season as they left off last and they haven’t lost in the Premier League since April – a 19-match unbeaten run.

Since Pep Guardiola took charge, the Sky Blues have netted 125 home goals in league matches, which is three more than Bournemouth have managed in all competitions since 2016-17.

We all know about the class and quality at Guardiola’s disposal and it’s usually a case of if Sergio Agüero doesn’t get you, then one of Leroy Sane, Raheem Sterling or David Silva will, if not all of them!

As you’d expect, they’re a short price to win at home but I’m not looking at the outright market or what the hosts can do in this one.

There is an intriguing angle surrounding Eddie Howe’s side, who started well but won’t have enjoyed November that saw them lose all three of their top-flight matches by a 2-1 scoreline.

The Cherries haven’t lost four in a row since September last year and that barren spell saw them lose 2-1 to today’s opposition at home. However, they’ll have felt hard done by last weekend when David Brooks saw an early goal wrongly chalked off for offside.

Having scored in ten of their 13 games so far, you can make a case for them getting on the scoresheet, especially with the creativity they have in the final third with Brooks Callum Wilson, Josh King and Ryan Fraser. That quartet has posed many a defence a problem this season and Man City’s could be the next.

Man City to Win & Both Teams to Score (6/4 – Betway) would be a way to get a better angle if wanting to back the hosts to record a 12th league win of the campaign.

For me, there’s an angle in the corners market that looks quite appealing at an odds against price.

The Cherries sit third for most corners taken (80) with only Man City (93) and Everton (81) having taken more.

That’s an average of 6.15 corners per game taken from Howe’s side and when you look at their team totals per game this season you’ll see some good figures.

3+ Bournemouth Corners (8/11 – Sky Bet) has won in all 13 Bournemouth games so far but I’m going for them to take one more than that.

The Cherries have taken 4+ corners in 12 of their 13 matches with the home win over Crystal Palace the only game where they took fewer.

They went to Stamford Bridge earlier in the season, where they took six corners, which fits in with their away average of 6.6 corners per game.

Going back through their recent trips to the Etihad then you’ll see this bet has won in their last two visits. In 2016, they lost 4-0 but took five corners (5-5) while last season, they took six corners and actually won the corner count 6-4.

Obviously, they are going to have to make the most of their foray’s into Man City territory but two struggling sides in Fulham & Southampton have come here and registered four corners.

If a side is going to trouble Man City, then Bournemouth are that side! You’d imagine plenty of good attacking football from both sides with goals likely but for me, this bet really does appeal. 

Bournemouth 4+ Corners (7/4 – Sky Bet)


Football Shortlist

Huddersfield vs Brighton (15:00) – Brighton Most Booking Points (EVS – Sky Bet)

Huddersfield are now unbeaten in three following last weekend’s 2-0 win at Wolves while Brighton haven’t won in three.

This could be attritional, so cards springs to mind, especially with the Seagulls topping the foul charts having committed 184, an average of 14 per game.

That’s 44 more fouls than Huddersfield have given away and with persistent fouling come cards with Chris Hughton’s side having collected nine more cautions than the Terriers.

This fixture has seen a couple of red cards recently too. Their 1-1 draw in April at the AMEX saw Davy Propper sent-off while when they met in the Championship in February 2017, Lewis Dunk saw red here.

That’s two Brighton players given their marching orders in the last three meetings and those are the two games where it’s landed with last season’s game here seeing no cards.

Michael Oliver is in charge. This is his third Huddersfield fixture of the season. He dismissed Jonathan Hogg in the game against Cardiff while when Liverpool visited, it was the Reds who picked up most booking points.

 

Hoffenheim vs Schalke (17:30)

The evening Bundesliga kick-off sees struggling Schalke travel to high-flying Hoffenheim, who will be looking to qualify for European competitions once more.

The hosts were beaten 3-2 by Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League on Tuesday but their league form sees them unbeaten in five.

In those five league games, they’ve netted 16 goals and have managed to net 2+ in each of them. One man behind that success has been Croatian forward Andrej Kramaric anytime (8/5 – Betfair).

Despite flopping at Leicester, the 27-year-old rebuilt his confidence and found his form rekindled when joining Hoffenheim.

He’s scored six goals in his last six matches for club and country, plus he’s scored twice in four appearances against Schalke.


Horse Racing

15:00 Newbury – Ladbrokes Trophy

27 of the last 34 winners started in the first four in the betting and you can see why there is plenty of interest surrounding Thomas Patrick and Elegant Escape.

The pair clashed at Sandown in the Listed Future Stars Intermediate Chase, which was taken by Colin Tizzard’s charge by half-a-length. However, Thomas Patrick now has a 5lb pull at the weights and Tom Lacey has his string in good order with a 42% strike-rate in the past fortnight.

Both of those runners like to race towards the pace but Go Conquer looks the most likely pacesetter in this given his running style and that could set the pair up nicely with prominent sorts being the most ideal to back here at Newbury.

That said, there is plenty of potential early pacesetters, which could set this up nicely for a closer and Ms Parfois would be a candidate to put forward coming from off the pace.

The seven-year-old has been excellent for Anthony Honeyball and after completing her hat-trick at Warwick in a Listed Novices’ Chase, she hit the crossbar three-times in Graded company, including the four-miler at the Cheltenham Festival and in the Mildmay Novices’ Chase at Aintree’s Grand National Meeting.

She doesn’t have the best form figures when returning to action but you’d imagine that Honeyball would have got her in prime condition for this. The daughter of Mahler has had a wind operation over summer and she ticks plenty of boxes with staying well and jumping soundly.

There is more rain forecast overnight and through the morning at Newbury, which would suit Ms Parfois down to a tee.

With Kemboy a non-runner due travel issues, Black Corton is top weight and he always runs with credit. In the last 12 years of this race, the top weight has placed at worst seven times, so his supporters could see an each-way punt come good once more.

Ms Parfois (6/1 – Bet365)

Tuesday’s Football: 27/11/18

I’ve taken two sides that I’m quite keen on this evening in the Football League and found bets that hold appeal at their prices.


Hull City vs Norwich (19:45)

The Canaries have been the surprise package in the Championship and they sit pretty at the top of the table following Saturday’s 4-1 away win at Swansea.

Daniel Farke’s men have won their last six league matches and in each of the last three, they’ve netted four goals.

Summer signing Teemu Pukki has five in his last three games and his goal on Saturday saw him reach double figures for the season.

On their travels, they haven’t been bad either. After a slow start with draws at Birmingham and Ipswich with a defeat at Sheffield United, they are now six unbeaten away.

They’ve won five of those six and only dropped points in a 1-1 draw at fellow promotion-hunting Derby.

Yes, I’ve been stung by Hull recently with that 3-3 draw at Birmingham but Frazier Campbell, who scored twice that day, is suspended here after picking up his fifth caution of the campaign.

That yellow came in their 2-0 home defeat at the hands of Nottingham Forest and ended their little three-match unbeaten streak.

Nigel Adkins side have lost five of their nine home matches already this season and are sitting in 23rd position.

Only fellow strugglers Bolton (12) and Ipswich (15) have scored fewer than Hull (16), while Norwich have already scored double that of the Tigers.

That fact Campbell has scored six of those 16 Hull goals means his suspension is a big blow, so everything is pointing to an away win in Humberside.

That is further highlighted by the fact that only Brentford (111) and Bristol City (91) have had more shots on target than Norwich (90) this season.

Farke’s men average five per game and in recent weeks with their goalscoring sprees then they could beat Hull a shade cosily, so do consider the Asian handicap routes too.

Norwich -1 AH (23/10 – Unibet) looks really good too. This has landed in their last two away games while Hull were beaten by two at the weekend, plus this offers some protection if the visitors do only win by a goal.

However, I’m just sticking with an away win here with them chalked up at an odds-against price. Having done the maths, I had Norwich around 8/11 rather than the price the oddsmakers have gone with, so that’s good enough for me.

Norwich to Win (29/25 – Marathon)


Shrewsbury Town vs Plymouth Argyle (19:45)

Both of these sides have won three of their last five league games but it’s Plymouth who remain in the relegation places after they went the first 11 matches without a win.

However, the Pilgrims have turned a corner and got back to winning ways on Saturday with a 2-1 victory over Fleetwood with Freddie Ladapo scoring a double.

They travel to Shropshire with the worst away record in the league having only collected five points on their travels and this long journey north could take a bit out of the visiting players.

Shrewsbury are in 17th but have collected the same amount of points on home soil as league leaders Portsmouth (15).

Danny Coyne’s side have turned a corner and were five unbeaten in all competitions prior to their 3-2 defeat at Wycombe, which saw both Shrews forwards finding the back of the net.

Despite both of these sides having scored the same amount of goals (21), Plymouth have conceded ten more while Shrewsbury are out-performing them on xG.

On stats like shots on target and touches in the opposition box, there is very little separating these two sides.

But with Plymouth being poor travellers, then I have to take them on with a side who have been good of late.

Shrewsbury beat promotion-chasing Barnsley 3-1 here last month and a bet that has won in five of their last eight matches in all competitions is the bet to take this evening, especially with Plymouth generally good for a goal on their travels have netted at Charlton, Barnsley and Luton of late.

Shrewsbury to Win & BTTS (3/1 – Betway)

Sunday’s Sport: 18/11/18

An own goal saw Coventry succumb at Burton to a 1-0 defeat meaning the main bet went down.

There was success with the cards angles in the Forest Green vs Morecambe game with both Under 40 Booking Points (8/11) and Forest Green Most Booking Points (11/4) both landing.

Two bets are appealing with a cards angle in the Nations League and a goals bet in the Italian Serie B.


Spezia vs Benevento (14:00)

Ten games into the Serie B season and Spezia are in mid-table having picked up 13 points so far with the majority of them coming here at Stadio Alberto Picco.

Benevento have made a solid start to life back in the second tier following last season’s relegation.

The Sorcerers sit in eighth and have been successful on the road picking up seven points from four trips with just one away defeat coming at second-placed Pescara.

34 goals have been scored across their ten league games, so they average 3.4 goals per game, which is high for this division.

8-10 Benevento games have gone Over 2.5 Goals with the two games where it didn’t, finishing in 1-0 wins, including one of them against bottom side Livorno.

19 goals scored makes them one of the better-attacking sides with Massimo Coda having six goals to his name so far while Roberto Insigne has chipped in with two goals and three assists.

With those sort of figures for the visitors then it’s worth looking at goals.

Despite only 5-10 Spezia games seeing Over 2.5 Goals, in their four home games, 13 goals have been netted in four games with 3-4 seeing three or more.

The fact that Spezia are strong enough at home and they can capitalise on some defensive vulnerability of their visitors with Benevento having conceded two goals in 3 of their 4 away games, so goals are both ends should enhance its chances.

Goals have been the constant theme in Benevento games and that looks set to continue as they make the long trip north to Spezia.

Over 2.5 Goals (11/10 – Various)


Football Notes

Hungary vs Finland – 40+ Booking Points (4/5 – Sky Bet)

This is similar to the Forest Green game yesterday where the referee caught my eye.

Slovenian Slavko Vincic is in charge of this contest in League C, Group 2 where Finland have already secured promotion while Hungary are playing to grab second ahead of Greece, so a bit at stake for the hosts.

The 38-year-old official has taken charge of 13 games in all competitions this season and 11 of those have seen at least 40 booking points for this bet.

His two Champions League games have seen 70 (Man United vs Valencia) and 65 (PSV vs Tottenham) booking points respectively with the latter of those games seeing him dismiss Hugo Lloris while his only previous Nations League assignment saw 60 booking points.

One of the games where it failed to land was Thursday’s friendly between Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland but that still saw him show three yellow cards, equivalent to 30 booking points.

All five of Hungary’s Nations League matches have resulted in 40 or more booking points, including the reverse fixture which saw 50 booking points.

With Hungary having picked up 13 cards in their five games then it might be worth taking them to collect most cards here too but with a referee that dishes his cards out this looks like the most solid bet.


Darts

We’re at the semi-final stages in the Grand Slam of Darts and it has worked out how everybody wanted with two heavyweights clashing.

Michael van Gerwen vs Gary Anderson

I’ll jump straight in by saying I can’t turn down the 2/1 on Gary Anderson to defeat the world number one and three-time Grand Slam winner.

The Flying Scotsman has been in ruthless form and has only lost 12 legs so far in the tournament.

His tournament average is 100.83 and he’ll need to hit somewhere around that once again but for me, it has been the finishing part of his game that has been pleasing to see.

Anderson can struggle on the outer ring but he had a 50% checkout success rate in yesterday’s quarter-final against Michael Unterbuchner hitting three ton-plus outs, including 152.

If the world number four can replicate that sort of finishing then he can progress to the final of this for the first time since 2011.

Despite Michael van Gerwen been in excellent form, he has shown some frailties in his game.

The group defeat to Jonny Clayton highlighted that and last night against the same opponent he missed 30 (yes, THIRTY) darts at doubles.

If he does that again, he’ll get punished with Anderson’s scoring likely to be slightly better than Clayton’s, which gives the Scot more of a chance to punish.

Mighty Mike did see the game out until his ninth match dart came around and that sort of profligacy could prove fatal for his chances to lift another Grand Slam title.

So for me, if Anderson continues with the fine form he’s been showing on those doubles, he can claim victory in what hopefully will be a classic.


Horse Racing

It’s the third and final day of the November Meeting at Cheltenham, which sees another fascinating days action.

One tracker horse takes my eye in a race where there is another potential well-treated runner.

15:00 – Greatwood Hurdle

The two against the field for me are Nube Negra (8/1) and Deyrann De Carjac (11/1).

Nube Negra returns from a summer break that has seen him undergo a wind procedure. He was last seen finishing fifth in the 4-year-old Juvenile Hurdle at Aintree.

He ran too keen that day and faded in the closing stages but he’s a good-looking type and if maturing and growing into his frame in those 220-days since we last saw him then he could be an exciting type.

This son of Dink has course form having finished second behind Apple’s Shakira in a Triumph trial in December before finishing third in the Fred Winter at the Festival.

He’s off the same mark as he was in the Fred Winter and he did travel quite nicely throughout the majority of that race before fading in the closing stages, so if the wind op has resolved that then he could take a close order here.

Dan Skelton saddled four winners at Uttoxeter yesterday while Harry Skelton rode a five-timer at the Staffordshire course proving they are both in great form and this was a race they won in 2016 with North Hill Harvey having his first run of the campaign.

Deyrann De Carjac represents last years winning connections Wayne Hutchinson and Alan King, who closed day two with a winner in the mares’ bumper.

This unexposed five-year-old comes here off a mark of 128 on his handicap debut and has chased home some useful individuals in his short career.

His hurdling debut saw finish third in a race won by Kalashnikov then he ran a good race behind Paul Nicholls’ Brahms De Clermont at Ayr before getting off the mark at Warwick.

He had a pipe-opener at Chepstow last month when defeated by Nicky Henderson’s Pym and with plenty of race likely in this race early doors then that could play to his strengths in the closing stages.

There has been plenty of support for him since the markets were formed and he looks like on who could capitalise on that mark at some point this season.

Saturday’s Sport: 17/11/18

Not to be for Norway who had to settle for a point with a 1-1 draw in Slovenia. The stats on Bet365 finished with 63 dangerous Norwegian attacks to just 6 from Slovenia plus Norway had a first half goal disallowed.

Remind to steer clear from the Nations League unless there is an attractive cards bet!

It’s the domestic action to feast upon this afternoon, plus more quality racing from Cheltenham.


Burton Albion vs Coventry (15:00)

Having priced this game up myself, I’m in complete disagreement with the oddsmakers.

At the time of writing, the odds are:
Burton 11/8                Draw 12/5                  Coventry 9/4

The odds I have this game are:
Burton 2/1                  Draw 7/2                    Coventry 5/4

Straight away you can see that I’ve got the game opposite to how the bookies have it, which surprises me by Coventry’s recent form.

The Sky Blues were knocked out of the FA Cup by fellow League One side Walsall last weekend but in the league they’ve been in fine form.

Mark Robins men are unbeaten in six having won five in a row before drawing 1-1 with fellow play-off chasing Accrington Stanley.

There has been a few fitness doubts about a couple of players but Robins has cover to call up for this trip to the Pirelli Stadium.

Burton succumbed in the FA Cup, like Coventry, to League One rivals. Their last four league games have all been high-scoring encounters.

A 3-2 win at struggling Plymouth before holding promotion chasing Portsmouth to a 2-2 draw were part of a three match unbeaten league sequence before that ended against Peterborough.

A 3-1 victory at Walsall at the beginning of the month got them back to winning ways but a key part of the success for the Brewers is missing here.

Liam Boyce, who has recorded three assists (joint-most at the club), is away on international duty with Northern Ireland and that is a big blow for their chances here.

Both Teams to Score (5/6 – Ladbrokes/Coral) has landed in the last four league matches for both of these respective sides, so goals could be an angle with Coventry having scored nine in their last four.

Jordie Hiwula-Mayifuila has three in four for the Sky Blues and he’s one that can chip in with goals from wide areas while Jonson Clarke-Harris has bagged in Coventry’s last two away games in all competitions.

With Robins’ side only being kept out of the play-off places on goal difference then they’ll be looking to keep pace with those above and can do that by taking the three points here.

At the prices, Coventry look big based on recent form and how I’ve got this game down, so for me the away win is backable.

Coventry to Win (9/4 – Bet365/Unibet)


Football Shortlist

Accrington vs Barnsley – BTTS & Over 9 Corners (7/4 – Bet365 Bet Builder)

Two of the form sides in League 1 and there should be plenty of entertainment for the paying public.

BTTS is 6-8 in Accrington home matches and they went down 3-2 in the EFL Trophy at Blackpool on Tuesday night.

Barnsley have won their last five matches in all competitions and they are one of the better attacking units in the division.

The Tykes have scored 29 goals, only Sunderland (32) and Peterborough (33) have netted more, while Daniel Stendel’s side average the most shots on target per game at 6 showing they do create chances.

Goals look good, as do corners! Put their two averages together then we should be looking for a total around 12 with Accrington averaging 5.35 for and Barnsley taking around 6.88 per game.

6-8 Accrington home games have seen double figures for corners while it’s 7-8 in Barnsley away games and the Tykes have recorded some good team totals on the corner front, so could be worth a look at to take most corners, but this bet builder looks more than fair.

 

Forest Green vs Morecambe

I’m more interested by the referee here because he’s not generally a cards issuer.

Ben Toner is the man in the middle and from 13 games this season has shown 26 yellows and 1 red. They are incredibly low figures when you consider him up against some of the whistlers across the Football League.

I’m not one to back unders in goals or booking points but he’s a referee that could suit and Under 40 Booking Points (8/11 – Sky Bet) has landed in 11 of his 13 games.

Even the game that he sent a player off saw this bet land with just another yellow card issued meaning the booking points totaled 35.

In terms of the two sides then they are two sides that commit few fouls to help that angle.

Morecambe have committed the joint-fewest fouls in the league (168) while Forest Green have only committed 174, which is the next best on the list.

The visitors average 1.47 cards per game compared to Rovers’ 2.06, so that indicates low cards and with both of those angles hinting at Forest Green Most Booking Points (11/4 – Sky Bet).

They’ve committed more fouls than Morecambe and picked up 8 more yellows and one more red.

The hosts average just shy of 20 booking points per home game while Morecambe average 11.25 booking points per away game and the Shrimpers have got through three away games without seeing a single card.

A low cards referee mean it could take just one home card to win the most booking points bet and at 11/4 it looks too big on all the known stats.

 

Boreham Wood vs Ebbsfleet – BTTS (19/20 – Bet365)

Keep it simple with this game at Meadow Park as two sides in mid-table go head-to-head.

Both sides are averaging a goal scored and a goal conceded this season, plus the both teams to score stats look pretty good too.

Boreham Wood home games have seen BTTS in 7 of 9 matches while Ebbsfleet on the road have seen it in 6 of 9 matches.

Danny Kedwell, who has netted double figures in eight of his last nine seasons, already has seven for Ebbsfleet and in opposition is young forward Josh Umerah, who has six goals to his name for Boreham Wood.


Horse Racing

The opening day of the November meeting belonged to Paddy Brennan, who rode a treble.

For the blog, Station Master was second in the opening contest yesterday and Josies Orders took top honours in the Cross Country.

I’ve only had a couple of bets on the card here:

13:50 – Looking Well (16/1)

Nicky Richards’ nine-year-old should relish this test of stamina and he ran on well at Perth last time over 3m suggesting this extra 3f should be right up his street.

He won at Kelso over 3m2f back in May 2016 and after a 244-day break followed that up when finishing a staying on second in the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster off a mark of 132.

Once again that effort proved he’ll require a test of stamina, which he’ll get here, and he’s only 3lb higher than that eye-catching run. If Brian Hughes can get him into a nice rhythm then he could well take a hand in the finish to deny Singlefarmpayment, who has been unlucky around here in the past.


14:25 – Benatar (8/1)

This renewal of the BetVictor Gold Cup looks very deep in terms of quality.

Mister Whitaker won a Novices Handicap Chase at the Festival here in March when beating Rather Be by a head. The latter has a big pull at the weights but the former has race fitness.

However, I’m with Benatar for the Moore team. He has stacks of useful form from last season, including when getting the better of Finian’s Oscar in a Grade 2 at Ascot in December.

He stepped up on that form when finishing third in the JLT behind Shattered Love and Terrefort but he did finish ahead of Kemboy, who we saw win the Grade 2 Clonmel Oil Chase on Thursday for Willie Mullins.

You can put a line through his reappearance on heavy ground at Newton Abbot. This son of Beneficial wasn’t given a hard time and that pipe opener should have him spot on for this and we’ve seen Gary Moore have some success this season with Traffic Fluide.

A few of others to note for me are Movewiththetimes, who looks set to have more to offer this season for Paul Nicholls. He’s had plenty of goes over these fences, so is used to the Cheltenham test and might be well treated off 140.

King’s Socks has been in the notebook since moving to these shores but is yet to live up to his potential. He’s not one to write off yet as a six-year-old and having had his wind done over the summer may him in a better light. David Pipe’s charge may need the run but he’s one I wouldn’t discount easily.

Neil Mulholland had a winner here yesterday and Kalondra has some good novice form in the book. He won here last December and didn’t run badly in a Grade 2 here in April in a race won by Traffic Fluide. At Galway he looked to be travelling quite smoothly and coming into contention before coming to grief two out. If that fall hasn’t knocked his confidence then he is a big player.