There was a lack of goals across all three games in Switzerland yesterday. The three games saw four goals and our game saw Basel win 1-0 thanks to a first half penalty.
Team news will be important for the FA Cup game at Stamford Bridge, so I’m heading to Spain for a cards bet.
Huesca vs Athletic Bilbao (20:00)
Two consecutive wins have given Huesca the faintest of hopes of survival despite remaining at the bottom and adrift by six points.
Athletic Bilbao are 14th and are four points above the drop zone, so need to start turning draws into wins. It was a good point for them last weekend against Barcelona but just one away win all season has seen them slip down the table.
The hosts have scored six in their last two games, which is more than they had netted in the previous eight games combined but more importantly for Francisco’s side is the three consecutive clean sheets.
When you’re in a relegation battle then those shutouts are crucial for a solid foundation to give you a stronger chance of winning games and that’s what they have managed of late.
Ezequiel Avila has scored three goals in his last two and could have some joy against a Bilbao side that have kept one away clean sheet all season, plus the Argentine scored in the reverse fixture, which saw the game end 2-2 with Huesca coming from 2-0 down.
However, I’m delving into a cards related market for the bet here considering Bilbao have collected the most La Liga cautions (76) while Huesca have the third-most (68).
Those cards are in keeping with the fact that these two rank second and third for fouls committed respectively.
Obviously, match booking points would be the usual route but they are priced accordingly given all the known form of these two sides, for example Over 60 Booking Points (EVS – Betfair).
With those prices not for my liking, I’ve looked to identify potential candidates for cards and one name cropped up at a fair price that is worth a small stake.
That player is Javier Galan for the hosts. The 24-year-old defender has played all 180 minutes for Huesca since joining from Cordoba last month.
In the Segunda Liga, he picked up six cautions in 17 starts and he has been cautioned in both of his La Liga starts to date.
That means the defender has been carded in six of his last nine appearances but more importantly, in each of his last four matches.
When looking more into his stats then you see that in those two matches he has averaged 3.5 tackles per game and 1.5 fouls per game. With tackle stats like that then it suggests he does ball watch and will put a foot in meaning the better chance of a card.
In a game with huge importance at the bottom end of La Liga then I’m taking this Huesca man to make it three cautions in as many starts for the basement dwellers.
Javier Galan to be Carded (7/5 – Betfair – 0.5pt)