Cheltenham Festival: Day 4

It was a day for the Irish and Davy Russell in particularly as the jockey rode a treble, which included Balko Des Flos lowering the colours of Un De Sceaux in the Ryanair Chase.

His other winners came with the exciting The Storyteller in the Stable Plate but his day started in the second race when guiding Delta Work to victory.

The day started with a well-backed Shattered Love get the better of Terrefort for Jack Kennedy and Gordon Elliott in the JLT Novices Chase.

The championship race of the day went the way of Willie Mullins, as Paul Townend steered last year’s Albert Bartlett winner Penhill to his second Festival win.

There was a British trained winner on the day but it didn’t come until the final race of the day – the Kim Muir – with a game and gutsy Missed Approach making all before holding off the late attentions of favourite Mall Dini.

Friday is the big day with the blue riband event – the Gold Cup.

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13:30 – Triumph Hurdle

Nicky Henderson has won this race three times in the last ten years and Barry Geraghty has partnered that trio of winners.

That potent pair team up with the unbeaten Apple’s Shakira who has done all her British winning around here since her move from France.

So far, she’s been relatively untroubled in her three wins, with two of them coming in Grade 2 races. She handles conditions, jumps slickly and will stay well up the hill.

Stormy Ireland won easily on Irish debut but didn’t beat a lot in that victory. This is much tougher but she comes from a top yard, who we’ve seen land the two Mares’ races at the Festival.

With her having just one start in Ireland she’s a bit of an unknown quantity still yet she falls into a negative trend. When running on the Flat in France her longest trip was 1m2f, which is shorter than the trend suggests.

Stablemate Mr Adjudicator is going somewhat under the radar after making an unbeaten start (2-2) over hurdles and his last outing came in the Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle when keeping on well showing a likeable attitude.

He has Grade 1 winning form, was rated over 80 on the Flat and raced over 1m4f on the Flat, so there are a few ticks in the trends boxes for this son of Camacho.

He beat Farclas at Leopardstown on the last day and given how the Gigginstown silks have been carried to win after win this week he will be backed, especially with being a Gordon Elliott runner.

He wears a first-time tongue-tie and has made a satisfactory start to life over hurdles having placed in a Grade 1 and a Grade 2. He won a 1m4f handicap in France on good ground but has seemingly handled the Irish conditions.

Redicean has done nothing wrong for Alan King and is 3-3 over hurdles with all those wins coming at Kempton.

This is a different type of test but he was very impressive in the Adonis Juvenile hurdle last time with the way he put the race to bed quite quickly and he ran strongly through the line.

Apple’s Shakira is the one that sets a good standard with her course form but at the prices, I’m taking a chance with Mr Adjudicator to give Mullins another winner.

Mr Adjudicator e/w – 8/1

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14:10 – County Hurdle

A right tricky puzzle to solve and last year Arctic Fire broke all trends when winning this off top weight as an eight-year-old but they still are a useful tool to narrow the field down.

Spiritofthegames is one that I want to be siding with despite how some of Dan Skelton’s have been running.

This six-year-old holds his best form over 2m3f and I reckon with this being an end-to-end gallop that it’ll suit him and we should get a strong finishing effort from him.

The son of Darsi was third in the Betfair Hurdle behind Kalashnikov, who we saw finish second in the Supreme. That was a good run and with testing ground plus a strong gallop, things could pan out nicely for him to make his presence felt.

Smaoineamh Alainn has won all three starts since joining the Robert Walford yard with the latest coming over this track and trip. The mare has been put up 8lb for her two lengths success here in December when looking like a well-treated type with the way she finished that race. She makes the shortlist.

Duca De Thaix will be one for the Gordon Elliott backers given he fits the usual profile for the winner of this race.

The five-year-old sneaks into this carrying 10st 8lb off a mark of 136. He won a Grade 3 on his penultimate start on heavy ground at Limerick before finishing down the field in another Grade 3 won by Sandsend.

Elliott’s handicap debutant wears a first-time tongue-tie and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him going in here.

Stablemate Brelade is of interest off a mark of 141 now returning to hurdling after a spell chasing when he was racing against the likes of Arkle winner Footpad and Arkle runner Petit Mouchoir.

This son of Presenting is a big price but has some good hurdling form as a novice in graded races, so could be one to consider.

Flying Tiger won the Fred Winter and more often than not he gives his running, so the consistent type can’t be ruled out off a mark that may not be beyond him.

Of the Mullins lot, Whiskey Sour would appeal most on the back of his fourth in the Deloitte Hurdle when behind superstar Samcro, Duc Des Genievres and Paloma Blue.

That race has a good form standard and he did well to hold fourth given the mistake he made. If polishing up in that department off this gallop, he could be well poised to challenge.

Spiritofthegame – 20/1
Whiskey Sour – 14/1

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14:50 – Albert Bartlett

Santini is an exciting prospect for Nicky Henderson, who has a strong hand in this field.

This son of Milan made it two wins out of two when winning a Grade 2 around here in January. That form looks good with Black Op finishing second in the Ballymore on Wednesday.

He stepping up in trip here but that should bring out more from him after he won a point-to-point by 15 lengths this time last year, however, this is a race where experience counts, so just the two runs over hurdles might put a few off despite his encouraging signs.

One of his stablemates Chef Des Obeaux has that bit more experience having already won twice over this trip, including in horrible conditions at Haydock in the Prestige Novices’ Hurdle.

He was beaten by Santini at Newbury over 2m4f but this trip is more to his liking and having those extra few runs under his belt means he’s more streetwise, so looks to be the one to side with.

Chris’s Dream hacked up in a Grade 3 at Clonmel on heavy ground last month but the strength of that form may be taken with a pinch of salt with how the favourite struggled in conditions and the fact the second horse was a 100/1 shot.

Two at bigger prices that could do something are Mr Whipped and Paisley Park. These two clashed in the Grade 2 Leamington Novices’ Hurdle at Warwick with the former coming out on top for Nicky Henderson.

He may have been idling at Warwick in the closing stages but was slightly disappointing at Musselburgh when looking one-paced.

If Paisley Park brushes up on his jumping then he isn’t without a chance. He was untidy a few times at Warwick but did shape like further would suit. He followed that up with a second at Doncaster last time when beaten by Gowiththeflow, who ran well for a long way in the Ballymore on Wednesday.

Emma Lavelle has put the visor on this son of Oscar and if that gets him to concentrate, so he’s more focused on his jumping then he wouldn’t be without claims at around 33/1.

Chef Des Obeaux – 11/2

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15:30 – Gold Cup

This could prove to be an excellent renewal of the big race with the headstrong Might Bite well fancied after adding the King George on Boxing Day to his growing list of Grade 1 wins.

He won the RSA Chase at last year’s Festival, so has the course form but Nico de Boinville will be sure keep him from hitting the front too soon given his nature to wander and ideal when in the lead.

The son of Scorpion has been exemplary over fences since his fall in the Kauto Star Novices Chase back in 2016 and he has the gears for this but there is a slight concern about him on this ground.

Native River has been prepped for this race after just one run coming at Newbury when easily winning the Denman Chase against just two rivals.

He won’t mind the ground and stays having finished third last year plus he was second in the four-miler. That said I feel he’s slightly more effective on flatter tracks, so he is one that could run well without winning.

There has been support for Our Duke after Presenting Percy’s win with this eight-year-old defeating him in the Red Mills Chase last year.

Jessica Harrington’s charge missed last year with an injury but has looked good and will stay the trip but once again he can make a few jumping mistakes, which has to be a concern.

A few to rule out would be American, who has to prove himself at this level, plus stable form a worry, Total Recall is targeting the Grand National, so don’t expect him to be too hard ridden if without a chance of winning and there’s Bachasson, who remains unexposed but his jumping has been a bit sketchy and with the speed they run in these races that could be his undoing.

Edwulf is the miracle horse and he won the Irish Gold Cup given a peach of a ride by Derek O’Connor, who retains the ride. Everything points to him running well but will he be suited by Cheltenham?

Killultagh Vic fell at the last in the Iris Gold Cup when in contention and who knows what might have been the result if he remains upright. That was his third run over 3m with the previous two seeing him win.

He’s unexposed and the one that could have more to offer given how lightly raced he’s been. Despite being a nine-year-old he has only had five chase starts but could be worth taking a chance on.

Definitly Red has won a couple of Grade 2 races on his last two outings, including the Cotswold Chase, which he won very well with everything pointing to a big run here.

The only thing he’s yet to do is prove it at the very top level and this is his chance to do that. He has plenty of appeal given the way he stays on testing ground, so there will be plenty of each-way appeal for him.

I think one of the seven-year-olds has an excellent chance in the shape of Road To Respect, who won the Grade 3 Stable Plate at the Festival last year, so brings course form with him to the table.

This son of Gamut was second in the JMWine.com Champion Chase at Down Royal in November when only headed close home by Gordon Elliott’s Outlander but he followed that up by winning the Christmas Chase at Leopardstown when responding well under pressure to reverse that form from the Down Royal race.

Balko Des Flos second in that Leopardstown Grade 1 and we saw him bolt up in the Ryanair Chase yesterday, so that form does look good with that in the book. He wouldn’t want any more rain but there is enough to suggest this progressive type could take another step forward to claim top honours.

Road To Respect e/w – 12/1

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16:10 – Foxhunters Challenge Cup

Hunter Chases are exactly my forte but I’ve backed a couple of places here in recent years, so here goes.

Burning Ambition has top amateur Jamie Codd in the saddle and strong form claims after his second to Gilgamboa in a Hunter Chase at Punchestown. More rain wouldn’t inconvenience him given his form on heavy ground and he could have more progress to make as he’s just seven-years-old.

Wonderful Charm nearly won this race last year when he swooped late but was just too late on the scene. Sam Waley-Cohen takes over in the saddle and that’s not a bad booking. He has only had one run this season with that coming last month at Musselburgh then he’s had the ideal prep to blow the cobwebs away.

Foxrock is 4-4 in Hunter Chases and has been winning well in this sphere since being switched to it. He was 162 rated at the peak of his powers, so has that touch of class about him however he hasn’t fired at Cheltenham in the past, so running him around here would be a concern.

Virak has looked much more suited by this test since entering Hunter Chases. He’s 2-2 and looked like he’s interested in the game again after losing his way in handicap chases. He was once second in the Grade 2 Peter Marsh Chase, so has ability.

Pacha Du Polder won this race 12 months ago under Bryony Frost, so it’s a slight negative this gelding doesn’t have her assistance. He made a disappointing reappearance when a beaten favourite at Doncaster last month, so despite having C&D form I’d swerve him.

Barrel Of Laughs was 100/1 in this last year and outran those odds by finishing third. He came home well despite looking outpaced at crucial times that day and considering how wide he went it was a big effort. He came back here and won the Gold Cup Hunters’ Chase despite idling close home. The 12-year-old arrives here having won a point-to-point last month so enters considerations.

Wonderful Charm e/w – 7/1
Barrel Of Laughs e/w – 25/1

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16:50 – Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle

Get the darts back out! Another tricky puzzle to solve and I’m throwing three darts at it starting with Blow By Blow who is one of many for Gordon Elliott.

This seven-year-old is lumbered with top weight but that comes after he got his act together in a Grade 3 Novice Hurdle at Thurles last time out. He was highly regarded by Willie Mullins and won a Grade 1 Bumper for him in his early days before the ownership fallout that saw him switch to Elliott.

Given he’s won graded races in the past then he could be slightly better than some of these handicappers. This son of Robin Des Champs has had five starts over hurdles with just one disappointing run where a mistake cost him his chance.

Elliott trained a Gigginstown winner in this last year with Champagne Classic and is the race he can plot one for. This seven-year-old won’t have been plotted given he’s shown himself to the handicapper but he can’t be discounted with his graded form.

I know I’ve said the form of Harry Fry’s string concerns me but I’d take a chance on Melrose Boy who was pulled out of a Grade 3 race at Sandown six-days ago, so connections clearly have earmarked this race as the target.

His last run saw him finish third in a Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle behind the 150-rated Topofthegame, who finished second in the Coral Cup, so the fact that he went within three lengths of him and is running off 137 here could somewhat underestimate him.

Kieron Edgar rode him to victory over 2m5f around here in November and he won that easily despite a jumping error at the last. He has course form, conditions are fine and he’s on a good mark, so everything makes him an attractive price.

The third of my picks is a bit of a flyer with Brillare Momento for local trainer Martin Keighley. This seven-year-old has won twice around here, including a Listed race as a novice.

This mare also won over course and distance back in October, so won’t have any issues with the track.

She won last time out at Towcester beating Red Indian, who was an eye-catching fast finisher for a never nearer sixth in the Coral Cup. Harry Stock was on-board that day and is again here claiming 3lb taking her down to 136.

The cheekpieces will hopefully sharpen her up, so with course form and a trainer that can prime them for a run here then she has to enter calculations.

Flawless Escape will be backed because of his third at Leopardstown behind the very well handicapped Total Recall. He wasn’t beaten by far that day and drops back in trip here, so will have plenty of fans.

Stablemate Sire Du Berlais has only had one run this season and that came 20-days ago when second at Fairyhouse. That will have sharpened him up, so don’t be surprised to see this son of Poliglote run a big race.

Diese Des Bieffes would have been a candidate but the ground may have gone against this grey. He has some good form after finishing fifth in the Lanzarote last time out and he has the assistance of James Bowen.

Blow By Blow – 12/1
Melrose Boy – 18/1
Brillare Momento – 33/1

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17:30 – Grand Annual

The usual Grand Annual finishes the Festival on what is likely to be a bookies day because this isn’t easy for the punter either.

Rock The World was second two years ago before going one better last time for Jessica Harrington.

JP McManus has brought the horse with this race in mind and more often than not runs his races around here, however, the ground may have just gone against him, especially if there is more rain.

The Game Changer could be one that Gordon Elliott has targeted at this race. He’s had a wind operation since finishing seventh of ten at Fairyhouse, which has seen him drop 2lb in the weights.

He’s had a quiet time but has won off higher marks, so if returning to somewhere near his best can’t be discounted.

North Hill Harvey was a joy to watch on his chase debut when winning over the fences on the Old Course. He was well beaten by Saint Calvados in the Arkle, which was disappointing but with cheekpieces on he could show his true ability.

Vaniteux looks laid out for the race after having wind surgery following his second in the Grade 2 Desert Orchid Chase. That was just a four-runner race but was his best effort for the David Pipe yard. He’s now 2lb lower than his last winning mark, so could come back to form if his issues have been resolved.

Paul Nicholls has a strong hand in this. Le Prezien is a tracker horse of mine but I find his finishing effort quite weak. He’s 4lb higher this time around but did run well in a handicap in October. Barry Geraghty could get the best out of him but he’s been slightly disappointing.

I’d be willing to chance Dolos, who has had just three runs over fences so far and seems to be going the right way. On his handicap debut, he was second to Gino Trial when unable to run him down in the closing stages but his jumping held up nicely and with this being a well-run race it is likely to suit.

Dolos e/w – 18/1

Cheltenham Festival: Day 3

It was a day for the bookies yesterday as the short favourites and those heavily backed were turned over.

None more so than Douvan, who ran no sort of race in the Champion Chase and I’m sure we’ll learn more about why that was. Special Tiara took the honours giving Noel Fehily his second big-race win in as many days. He gave Henry De Bromhead’s charge a peach of a ride making the running unchallenged at a decent gallop and held off the late attentions of Fox Norton.

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In the Coral Cup the well-touted Tombstone never really landed a blow while the talking horse of the Champion Bumper Cause Toujours never got out of midfield. The winner of that race put in an incredible performance giving Gordon Elliott another victory and a second on the day for pilot Jamie Codd. Fayonagh gave ground away at the standing start but came strong and late to prevail.

Yesterday’s Results

13:30 – Neon Wolf (2^nd – 2/1)

14:10 – Whisper (2^nd – 9/2)

14:50 – Peregrine Run & Mister Miyagi (Unplaced)

15:30 – God’s Own (Unplaced)

16:10 – NO BET

16:50 – Dolos & Dreamcatching (Unplaced)

17:30 – Western Ryder (5^th – 9/1)

 Things start like Tuesday with two places but after that it went downhill. Here’s hoping for better with these!

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13:30 – JLT Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

Ruby Walsh and Willie Mullins are still yet to find their way to the winners enclosure at the festival but they have a decent chance in the opening contest today with Yorkhill. A high-class hurdler, who won last season’s Neptune, has won on both chase starts to date but hasn’t been entirely convincing with his jumping. He is a head strong type who races keenly, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Walsh take him to the front here to give him a sight of his fences but he wasn’t too fluent at Leopardstown despite scoring in a Grade 3 Novices’ Chase. There is an argument that despite not being the best over his fences he is a clever sort whether he sees a stride or gets in tight but in a race of this nature he can’t afford too many mistakes.

 I’ll hold my hands up here. I was against Top Notch when he won the Scilly Isles but he made me sit up and respect him. He has been brought along steadily over fences and made his debut in that excellent race at Uttoxeter when third to Charbel, who would have gone close to Altior if remaining upright. He won his next two with his head in his chest before looking even better at Ascot and Sandown when upped in trip. He was a classy hurdler and if getting close to the performance he put in to win the Scilly Isles then he could win this equally as well. Nick Henderson is having a good week and these silks were carried to second and third in this race last year.

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On ratings Disko is second in behind Yorkhill. He was beaten by Our Duke by one length in December over three miles but reversed that form last month over a furlong further than today’s trip when he seemed to put everything together and just clicked. He comes into this as the danger and tactically it’ll be intriguing to see how he’s ridden. This grey has been ridden close to the pace, so is likely to track Yorkhill but if they go off side-by-side early on then they could light each other up and not get home.

Politologue is a very tidy jumper and did what he had to last time in a match race at Kempton when racing in the hood for the first-time. Prior to that he was beaten by the smart Waiting Patiently, who misses the festival, in what was a creditable effort. He is another that can be a free going sort and could go to the front. The only question is whether the ground if it turned to genuine good would suit him.

Top Notch (4/1)

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14:10 – Pertemps Network Final

The hardest race of the week to decipher and one where there is plenty of interlinking form clues.

Mall Dini took the spoils last year and Presenting Percy represents his connections this time around. He won very easily wearing a first-time tongue-tie at Fairyhouse over 2m4f on heavy ground. His two runs over this trip have been solid and if the tongue-tie helps him to see out his race then he’d have claims off a 6lb higher mark. That said only one horse in the last ten renewals, Fingal Bay, has won carrying 11st 5lb or more.

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For Good Measure looks to have been campaigned with this race in mind. All three runs this season have been around this course and he narrowly went down to stablemate Golden Doyen on his reappearance. He’ll relish the spring ground and could still be well treated. He’s a brother to Balthazar King and Philip Hobbs knew how to get the best out of him. This could prove to be a JP McManus plot job.

As stated above Golden Doyen got the better of For Good Measure in the final strides last time and this six year old could have more to offer at this trip. That was his first attempt and he saw it out strongly. Only up 3lb on this ground makes him a big player.

It would be a heartwarming story if Tobefair went home with the prize. Debra Hamer only trains a small string and this seven year old has put her on the map after recording a seven-timer since moving to her. He won over 3m2f on soft ground at Warwick, so if these go the expected gallop then it could suit this game gutsy type. He’s handled everything that has been thrown at him so far and a bold showing is likely once more.

I like the look of the ultra consistent Rocklander for Tom George. He hasn’t been outside the first two since moving to his current handler and the step-up to three miles has seemed to suit him the last twice. He had a sighter over course and distance when going down by a neck to Cogry before running a nice race at Exeter behind Impulsive Star, who is also in the line-up. This son of Oscar should relish this ground and he is a strong traveller, so the good gallop is one that should see him run another nice race.

Rocklander (near side) holds major claims and this is him up against Cogry. Image: Julian Herbert – PA Images

 

Impulsive Star won that Exeter race on what was his handicap debut and he was well punted in the market. Neil Mulholland did say afterwards he hoped to get in to this contest but could have gone for the Albert Bartlett, which shows there is some class about this seven year old who is getting his act together. He’s gone up 10lb for that success at Exeter but the concern would be the way he dealt with Cheltenham last time. It was a good performance to finish fourth in the Bristol Novices’ Hurdle but he did jump and wander right-handed, so it might prove that Exeter suited him last time out.

Gayebury has to cope with top weight and a 15lb rise after his romp at Chepstow where he beat Jury Duty. He is unexposed but it is a big asking carrying this sort of weight. The other to mention is Theo’s Charm who ran well from the front at Haydock last time after reverting back to hurdles. He was second in the Fixed Brush Hurdle back in November and that form can carry significance into this race and at around 40/1 Nick Gifford’s charge cannot be taken lightly.

Rocklander (22/1)

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14:50 – Ryanair Chase (Grade 1)

Empire Of Dirt looks likely to give his owner his first winner in the race he’s sponsored for some time now. This ten year old won the Stable Plate here last year in pretty taking fashion. He’s only had two starts this season and his first saw him prove he is a nice type after winning a handicap by four lengths against a horse that subsequently won and the fourth that day was Noble Endeavor, who gave his running when third in the Ultima. Last seen finishing second in the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown and that sets the standard here after being given a patient ride but was held in the closing stages. Held potentially Gold Cup claims, so a big contender here.

There are eight runners and I cannot see a way that Uxizandre is out of the first three. He won this race in 2015 giving Sir Anthony McCoy a final festival winner when getting a well-judged ride from the front. The chestnut was then off for 688-days before reappearing over 2m in the re-arranged Clarence House Chase when no match for Un De Sceaux. However the return to 2m5f will suit, as he’s proven and the way he shaped last time suggested he retained plenty of ability after such a long lay-off. Alan King puts the cheekpieces on this son of Fragrant Mix, which will hopefully get him to settle better than he did when racing keenly in the Clarence House. If that’s the case then he has a huge chance here.

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Un De Sceaux cracked in the Champion Chase last year when under pressure from Sprinter Sacre and was arguably softened up by the winner of it yesterday Special Tiara in that race last year. He comes here with the hopes of recording another Grade 1 success as his role honour has continually grew after having taken the Tingle Creek and Clarence House. Most of his British form is over 2m but he has won at Auteuil when winning the Prix la Barka over hurdles in May. There are reasons to oppose despite being the top rated runner in the field. It’s his first time over this trip over fences, the drying ground has to be a concern and he could get softened up by a couple of these.

Josses Hill will be suited by the return to this trip but shouldn’t be good enough. Alary has failed to live up to his lofty reputation since joining the Colin Tizzard yard and has failed to complete on both starts for the yard. Sub Lieutenant has to be given a squeak. He disposed of Gold Cup hope Outlander in the Belfast Chase but that form was reversed when he was behind Djakdam and Outlander in the John Durkan. It was another good effort in the Kinloch Brae last time going down to Sizing John, who went on to win the Irish Gold Cup, so his form looks strong coming into this. He is likely to go from the front and that could suit the new course with Henry De Bromhead having a strong chance of taking another Grade 1 victory.

Uxizandre (9/2)

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15:30 – Stayers Hurdle (Grade 1)

The World Hurdle has reverted to its old name under new sponsors SunBets and Unowhatimeanharry ticks all of the boxes for the race, so is a worthy favourite.

We know he handles the course and distance after winning last season’s Albert Bartlett when powering home under Noel Fehily.

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He’s gone from strength to strength this winter and fits all the trends for winners of this race. He won two of the key trials in the Long Distance Hurdle and Cleeve Hurdle by a combined total of over seven lengths and those who he beat re-oppose here.

Noel Fehily has already taken the first two championship races at the festival and this could be a historic third on what is likely to be a red hot favourite.

However I’m attracted to Snow Falcon for Noel Meade, who would have gone close in the Long Distance Hurdle if not falling three out. He cruised into contention that day in a slow gallop and if they go at a decent clip that should help his jumping.

He was second to Shaneshill in the Galmoy Hurdle in January and was staying on under pressure after the last but wasn’t going to pass the Mullins horse. In a bigger field with a stronger pace it’ll see him travel much better and the Cheltenham track will arguably suit him after winning at Navan and Listowel in the past.

Snow Falcon could prove the value in the race. Image: coral blog

 

This son of Presenting would have pushed Unowhatimeanharry close at Newbury and with plenty of factors likely to suit his running style in this race he seems to be a forgotten horse in this race.

Cole Harden won this race in 2015 and he could be somewhere back to his best after two placed efforts in the Relkeel and Cleeve Hurdle both run here respectively.

Warren Greatrex’s charge is likely to go from the front and it’s just a question of whether he’ll last home against some of these opponents but there is plenty of positive vibes from his yard regarding his chances.

Ballyoptic could be another one at a big price but he comes with a health warning. This seven year old is likely to belt at least a couple on his way round, which will check valuable momentum, plus his trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has been out of form of late. The tongue-tie is on for the first-time and that might help him to see out his race.

It’s also worth noting that Colin Tizzard has spoken about his preference for West Approach in this race. For me he’d have a better chance in the Albert Bartlett but this half-brother to Thistlecrack looks to have been campaigned with a festival run in mind with the amount of visits to the course, so he has plenty of experience around here. He’s run some nice races and has place claims.

Snow Falcon (20/1)

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16:10 – Brown Advisory Stable Plate (Grade 3)

This has been a bookies race in the last ten renewals with just one horse winning at odds shorter than 10/1. Last season saw a 16/1 winner and in 2015 Darna returned at 33/1.

Henryville is a spring ground horse and looks to have been laid out for this race. He hasn’t raced for 103-days but that won’t be a concern because he generally goes well fresh having won off 106-day, 165-day and 174-day breaks in the past. He finished fourth in the Pertemps Hurdle at the 2015 festival and has placed on two of three visits to Prestbury Park. Harry Fry’s charge comes here after running a decent race in the Grand Sefton over the national fences. Noel Fehily is having an excellent festival having won the two Grade one’s and could make it a hat-trick when teaming up with Fry’s Unowhatimeanharry in the race before. This nine year old ticks plenty of boxes and with five of the last six winners carrying between 10st 9lb – 10st 11lb he fits the mould on that as well.

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Last season’s Coral Cup winner Diamond King is in the field and Gordon Elliott can do no wrong, bar swearing live on RUK. This nine year old has only had three starts over fences winning well on debut for being pitched in deep against some useful types. That said he has jumped well for the large part and more should be expected on handicap debut off a mark of 150; he won the Coral Cup off 149 last year, so may not be badly treated.

Katchenko bumped into a progressive rival at Catterick over 3m1f last time and off a low weight is very interesting. He seems to come good at this time of year and was a winner at Aintree in April. The eight year old isn’t one to discount, as I think he’ll enjoy this sort of trip. Baron Alco holds claims on his chase form. He was second to Whisper in a Novices’ Chase over C&D and Gary Moore’s inmate put in a good showing in the Scilly Isles and we could see that form franked earlier in the day. He’s got a likeable attitude and in an open handicap is one that could be place.

Tango De Juilley has to be feared in this after his run here last season. He finished second on what was his seasonal debut to Empire Of Dirt and the Gigginstown winner is the Ryanair favourite and could take the spoils in that. Venetia Williams’ stable has been flying and she can get one ready first time. He won after a 632-day absence back in 2014 and ran a blinder here last year after 348-days off, so the break shouldn’t be a concern. He’s only 1lb higher than last year and she claims off him with Charlie Deutsch taking 3lb off in the saddle.

Henryville (28/1)
Tango De Juilley (25/1)

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16:50 – Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)

Willie Mullins holds a strong hand here with the two top rated mares in Let’s Dance and Airlie Beach. The former gets the vote and is on a four-race winning streak.

She was behind Apple’s Jade in April and we saw that mare win the Mares Hurdle on Tuesday. She has course experience after finishing fourth in last year’s Triumph Hurdle as well. She stays further so the new course should suit and she looks quite versatile over trip. This daughter of Poliglote is a slick jumper of the hurdles and at five could have more to come.

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Airlie Beach is unbeaten in seven after taking the Royal Bond Novices’ Hurdle in good style. The drying ground will suit and she also has won over further. She was kept busy in the backend of the year but hasn’t been seen for 102-days but there is no doubt Willie Mullins will have her fit and ready to go. All seven wins have been on right-handed tracks but that shouldn’t concern because she jumped out to her left at Fairyhouse last time, so the track should suit.

La Bague Au Roi was a useful mare in bumper and has taken well to hurdles having won all three starts. She impressed once more when winning a Listed event at Newbury last time when making all and she is likely to be a pace angle into this contest, so the New Course could suit her running style. I do like her and she does keep progressing but if she has the class of the Mullins pair I’m not sure. It would take another big step forward after that Newbury win to be victorious here.

The oldest runner in the field Toe The Line can’t be discounted. She was a useful type on the flat winning a Listed race over two miles. She has come late over hurdles but John E Kiely’s mare should be suited by Cheltenham. A narrow second at Leopardstown last time when travelling nicely and just coming up short after a small error at the last. The drop back a furlong is likely to help. She has plenty to find on ratings but there is some potential there.

Let’s Dance (6/4)

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17:30 – Kim Muir Challenge Cup

A wide-open handicap for the Amateur jockeys where plenty have chances. Hadrian’s Approach showed he was coming back to form when fourth in the Hennessy off this mark. The ten year old hasn’t been seen since that fine effort 110-days ago and I’d have liked to have seen him run in this calendar year. He does have the assistance of Will Biddick in the saddle as a positive.

Potters Cross is one that is likely to stay after winning at Newbury over this trip but didn’t back that fine jumping display up when pulled up at Doncaster last time. He is back in a handicap now, which should help. Mall Dini won last season’s Pertemps Hurdle and has Katy Walsh on board, so is shortlisted. His Irish form looks fairly solid with consistent efforts behind types that ran well on the opening day of the festival.

The vote goes to Doctor Harper for David Pipe, who has twice trained the winner of this race. The cheekpieces and tongue-tie are on first-time plus Lisa O’Neill gets the leg up after her win in the four-miler on Tuesday, so confidence will be high. This nine year old was second over course and distance in January and is a leading contender. He was well backed in this last year but unseated, so off the same mark can go well.

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Premier Bond makes his handicap debut in this and the seven year old has won his last two novice chases. He trailed home 14 lengths behind RSA Chase winner Might Bite on chasing debut. The way he finished off at Doncaster to win suggests he has stamina in abundance. The Nicky Henderson yard is in red-hot form and Sam Waley-Cohen on board is an eye-catching jockey booking for the Middleham Park runner. Whats Happening has won on both starts at this course and shaped well after an absence of 477-days when second at Exeter. The return to Cheltenham on good ground and off just a 1lb higher mark then he is one to look out for.

Doctor Harper (14/1)

Cheltenham Festival: Day 2

Day One belonged to Gordon Elliott and Nicky Henderson in their own right. Elliott saddled three winners while Henderson re-wrote the record books after Buveur D’Air won the Champion Hurdle making him the most successful trainer in the races history with six wins – he also had the second in My Tent Or Yours.

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The blog produced one winner at 7/2 yesterday but four other horses placed. Here is how they ended up:

Yesterday’s Results

13:30 – River Wylde (3^rd – 8/1)

14:10 – Forest Bihan (Unplaced)

14:50 – Singlefarmpayment (2^nd 5/1)

15:30 – Petit Mouchoir (3^rd – 6/1)

16:10 – Apples Jade (WON – 7/2)

16:50 – Dancing Shadow (Unplaced)

17:30 – Two Taffs (3^rd – 7/1)

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13:30 – Neptune Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

Neon Wolf has been one of the talking horses for the festival and this looks ready made for him. Harry Fry has put him in this race after the drying ground makes the test more suitable compared to what he would have faced in the Supreme. He was very impressive when remaining unbeaten at Haydock proving he could be a top-class novice. He jumped fluently and cleared away showing he has a decent engine. The son of Vinnie Roe beat Elgin that day and Alan King’s charge ran well for a long way in yesterday’s Supreme. He does look like a classy individual and is the one to beat.

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Bacardys was third in last season’s Champion Bumper and leads the Irish charge here for Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh, who drew a blank on Day 1. His win last month over stablemate Bunk Off Early probably helped decide the plans for both horses with the second running in the Supreme and this six year old stepping up in trip after the way he saw out the 2m2f trip when winning the Deloitte. Despite this distance likely to bring further improvement out of him he still rates as the second choice behind Neon Wolf.

Keeper Hill was a game winner of the Sidney Banks when heads then rallying to get back up to defeat Messire Des Obeaux. The market suggests that the form is likely to be reversed but Alan King is one from 90 in festival hurdle races since 2009. It’s Keeper Hill that could prove a big price here despite the pull in the weights with that rival because there is stamina in the pedigree and he has a lovely attitude.

Mentioning Keeper Hill brings me to a big outsider in Skipthecuddles. I gave the pair a decent write-up for picksfromthepaddock ahead of a Hereford maiden hurdle, which they were 1-2. Skipthecuddles was making his hurdling debut that day and was ridden quietly before eye-catchingly staying on to take second. He was stepped up in trip at Wetherby last time when he drew clear in good style. This is a big step-up in class but he has the size and scope to improve once more. Graeme McPherson is having a quiet spell and even if not today he is definitely on to look out for in the future.

Ben Pauling’s Willoughby Court won a trial that has thrown up a few winners in the past. He was able to dictate that day but proved his liking for the trip. That form received a major compliment when the second Gayebury won a handicap over three miles by 13 lengths. He’s a lovely stamp of a horse and can’t be discounted lightly.

Neon Wolf (15/8)

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14:10 – RSA Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

Nicky Henderson holds a strong hand in this Grade 1 with Might Bite after an excellent opening day. He sets the standard despite falling at the last when well clear at Kempton on Boxing Day when asked for a big jump, which wasn’t required. Daryl Jacob was on that day but it was Nico de Boinville in the saddle when he got a confidence-boosting win at Doncaster last time and it’s de Boinville who retains the ride here.

There is a stat that none of the last 19 winners of that Kempton race have gone on to win the RSA, which must be a concern for Royal Vacation, who was the beneficiary from that last fence fall.

Preference though is for stablemate Whisper who is two from two over fences with both wins coming at this track. He won the Dipper Novices Chase when giving weight to a good rival, so he could prove to be the one at a price here.

Those wins have been over shorter trips but he could improve for further considering he won two Stayers’ Hurdles at Aintree over this trip in the past. Despite being a nine year old he can re-write the trends about the age of the winner – no nine year old has won this since Miinnehoma in 1992.

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Acapella Bourgeois could lead the Irish Challenge but his last run won’t surmount to much with the way the race panned out and how much of an easy time he got. The question mark is the ground with the majority of his best form coming of soft and if the dry weather continues it could catch him out.

If someone can get one right it is Mouse Morris and Alpha Des Obeaux represents him. The horse was well supported ahead of his previous start but he was sharply pulled up after bursting a blood vessel. He has solid form prior to that, especially his Cork win, and he was best of the rest behind Thistlecrack in the World Hurdle last year. However, once a horse bursts a blood vessel it has to be a concern how that will affect him mentally when he steps on to a racecourse again.

Whisper (7/1)

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14:50 – Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)

One of the bigger puzzles to solve during the festival is this Grade 3 Handicap with 26 going to post.

Gordon Elliott’s Tombstone has been rerouted into this handicap and he could be thrown in here off 149 after winning well last time in a Grade 3. If handling the better ground and the step up in trip he’d be on the shortlist after a fantastic start for the yard yesterday. The money has already started to come for this son of Robin Des Champs.

Peregine Run won a Grade 2 over course and distance in November and that form has been complimented by the fact the second horse Wholestone has since won two Grade races of his own. He handles good ground, the track and off 142 is potentially still well treated, so there is plenty to like about Peter Fahey’s runner.

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A chance is also taken on Mister Miyagi (left of image), who ran no sort of race in a Grade 2 here in December, which prompted a wind operation. His Novice Hurdle form looks solid – sixth in the Supreme and a win here in April by a good distance. In a strongly run race he doesn’t look too badly treated.

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JP McManus unsurprisingly holds a strong hand. Modus carries top weight and he seemed to relish the extra distance when winning the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton. Stan Sheppard takes 5lb off, so he could have more to offer.

Also in his colours is Scoir Mear and this seven year old has been a model of consistency. He gets in towards the bottom of the weights and looks like he is lurking on a mark he could win off.

Peregrine Run (10/1)
Mister Miyagi (16/1)

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15:30 – Champion Chase (Grade 1)

This is all about Douvan and how far he wins it by with a clear round of jumping. He’s a class act and is nine from nine since coming over the larger obstacles. He’s 1/4 for a reason, so sit back and enjoy this beast in action.

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It might be worth looking at the ‘Without Douvan’ market.

God’s Own is a consistent type and even lowered the colours of the ill-fated Vautour in April.

Tom George’s runner just looks the most solid up against Douvan and won’t have to worry about the two horses that finished in front of him in the Tingle Creek with Un De Sceaux likely to be Ryanair bound and Sire De Grugy ruled out.

That was a good effort for him because he hasn’t handled Sandown well in his few visits to the course before. Despite making a bad mistake in that contest he wasn’t beaten all too far and a replication of that effort should see him leading the field home once Douvan has romped up the hill.

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Fox Norton has won three times over course and distance and one of them came after moving from Neil Mulholland to Colin Tizzard. He eased home in by a comfortable margin in the Shloer Chase and then had it all to do up against Altior in the Game Spirit Chase last time.

In races where he has faced Douvan they’ve tried a mixture of tactics. In last year’s Arkle they raced him prominently before being inconvenienced slightly and finishing third. At Aintree in the Maghull they held him up and he was never really on terms, so was a well-beaten third that day too.

This seven year old does enjoy is around here but my preference is for God’s Own.

Special Tiara is more miss than hit these days and Henry de Bromhead will have to wave his magic wand to see him finishing in the frame.

He’s now a ten year old and although he won a very weak Desert Orchid Chase, age does seem to be catching up with him. There are a few sprightly types in this and they could leave him behind.

God’s Own w/o Douvan (4/1)

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16:10 – Cross Country

The Cross Country is one of the most fascinating races in the festival with the variety of challenges it offers. Enda Bolger is the leading trainer in this race with five wins and his Josies Orders was awarded this race after the winner tested positive for a banned substance.

The first past the post last year was Any Currency who generally targets this race for local trainer Martin Keighley. He’s now a 14 year old, so has something to prove but he ran well here in January when third giving weight away. Now off level weights it brings it back to his favour. In 2014 and 2015 he has been runner-up and can’t be dismissed.

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It’s Cantlow who holds the strongest claims for Enda Bolger. He seemed to empty last on when second in January in a handicap and was giving the winner plenty of weight, so this will favour him. He looks the one they all have to beat for top connections.

Bless The Wings was behind Cantlow in December by nine lengths and has a pull at the weights. The Gordon Elliott factor is likely to play a part in how the market shapes up here but he’s a big player with plenty of solid form over course and distance. One who should give his running is Ballyboker Bridge for Peter Maher. He’s a consistent type and has placed in his last three races of this nature, all at Punchestown. The ten year old would arguably be a shorter price if trained by a bigger name plus he has beaten Cantlow in the past. He could prove a big price to hit the frame.

No Bet

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16:50 – Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)

This is a race where it’s hard not to be attracted to the French-bred or French imports given their superb record in this race having won seven of the 12 renewals and Paul Nicholls made it two in a row with Diego Du Charmil last year making him the most successful trainer in this race.

Divin Bere is well touted on his second start for Nicky Henderson after getting the better of a smart type in Master Blueyes, who has won twice since including the Grade 2 Adonis at Kempton. It’s reported he’s had his wind tinkered with since then and he could have plenty more improvement to come. He has a flat pedigree, so should have plenty of speed, plus having he shouldn’t have a problem on quicker ground with being a son of Della Francesca.

David Pipe had a winner yesterday and he has Poker Play who went down at odds of 1/3 on British debut at Kempton. He had two runs in France and was only beaten a length by Charli Parcs, who may be Triumph bound, before winning well. Despite those coming on heavy ground he shouldn’t have any concerns about the ground being by Martaline, who was owned by Khalid Abdullah. This four year old cost £280,000 and was beaten a long way from home by Fidux. He may prove better suited to this test rather than one of speed at Kempton and the first-time tongue-tie should help his breathing. Despite the debut flop he’d be of interest to get his career back on track.

I’m sticking with the Paul Nicholls pair in this. Dolos won easily on debut for team Ditcheat and has raced three times since. He was a distant third in a Grade 1 Juvenile Hurdle at Chepstow when beaten by Defi Du Seuil and lacked a change of gears when it mattered. Last time at Taunton he was third once more behind Air Horse One and The Unit, both of whom have franked the form since. The handicapper has dropped him 2lb since that run 47-days ago and he could be one to take from a pace angle in this.

His stablemate Dreamcatching has to be of interest off a similar weight to Diego Du Charmil when he won last season. He did an awful lot wrong on debut in December when finishing sixth at Kempton and Nicholls kept him off the track until last month when he showed his true ability. It probably wasn’t a strong race but he did what he had to do very nicely. In his Betfair blog Nicholls says he is hoping his mark of 131 is “on the generous side” plus he has Stan Sheppard on board taking a further 5lb off. With the trainers record in this race and the way he won last time he could be one with more improvement to come.

Diable De Sivola has to be worth a mention on his course and distance second to Defi Du Seuil in a Triumph Hurdle Trial back in November. Nick Williams charted a similar path with Coo Star Sivola last season who was second in that same trial before running in this race when finishing third. In that November race Lizzie Kelly was unable to claim and was giving the winner 4lb in weight. It wouldn’t have made much difference but a replication of that effort should be good enough to hit the frame in an open handicap

Dolos (11/1)
Dreamcatching (12/1)

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17:30 – Champion Bumper

Daphne Du Clos would have been the pick here but she has been ruled out because of a setback, so Aintree may be on the cards for her.

Attention turns to Western Ryder for Warren Greatrex, who followed Daphne Du Clos home at Newbury last time.

In that race he dug deep and considering he was conceding 21lb of weight to the winner shows how well he ran despite never really threatening.

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He’ll be suited by going left-handed here and deserves to take his chance in this contest after that creditable effort against the progressive filly. The way he won at Ascot the time before proved he has a touch of class about him. His trainer had a runner yesterday and he ran a blinder when setting the pace in the four-miler and holding on for second.

Fergal O’Brien’s Imperial Eloquence was second to Western Ryder in that Ascot race and his trainer has had a decent record in bumpers around here of late. He trains locally and this five year old hasn’t raced since that run in December. There is a big price disparity between the pair on that form but it might take more from this son of Kalanisi to reverse it.

Carter McKay really took the eye with his success at Naas last month and he’s held in high regard by Willie Mullins. The Irish handler provided the second, third and fourth last season, so his runners are noted.

Dan Skelton holds Cause Toujours highly and he’s had a wind operation coming into the festival. He dotted up in a soft ground race at Warwick looking like a really nice type. If the form rates to much I’m not sure but he could have more to offer.

Fayonagh should be entitled to respect with the manner of his performance in a Listed bumper at Fairyhouse last time. If she’ll handle the drying ground is a big question with both of her wins coming on deep ground but you have to like the way she galloped through the line last time when able to put her rivals in trouble. With her being a mare she receives a weight allowance as well.

Alan King rates Perfect Harmony and he beat subsequent winner My Mate Mark on her debut under rules when conceding plenty of weight. He travelled nicely into the race and this big field should help to see him travel strongly once more. This five year old is one that comes into the race under the radar.

Western Ryder (10/1)

Cheltenham Festival: Day 1

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The calm before the ROAR!

13:30 – Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

Melon has been the talking horse for a while and did what he needed to do on debut. The form of that Leopardstown race looks weak with the second running three times since without success. Horses that have only ran once over hurdles do have a poor record, so he is one I want to take on.

Nigel Twiston-Davies’ Ballyandy won the Champion Bumper last and that can act as a good guide for this. That’s because four of the last 14 winners of this have finished in the top four of the previous season’s bumper. He then showed his capabilities over obstacles when winning the Betfair Hurdle last time. In that he travelled smoothly before putting the race to bed. He could still have more to offer and he’s more of a battle-hardened runner, which is likely to help.

I was taken by the way River Wylde quickened up at Kempton to claim the Dovecote last time when beating Elgin making it three from three over hurdles. Nicky Henderson has taken his time with this son of Oscar and he’s continually progressed from his two wins at Ludlow to scooping that Grade 2 race. His trainer ended the Mullins/Walsh dominance last year with Altior and this six year old can give him another winner in the race.

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One at a huge price and is a course winner is Pingshou. He beat a nice type in William Henry he in a Novices’ Hurdle in December over a furlong further here and should be suited by the drying ground. This seven year old has had his problems and should be helped by returning to this trip after his previous effort on New Year’s Day over four furlongs further. Colin Tizzard is expecting to have a good festival and this son of Definite Article is going under the radar.

River Wylde (8/1)

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14:10 – Arkle Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

The first of the group ones should go to last year’s Supreme winner Altior. This unbeaten seven year old has taken beautifully to fences and seemingly jumps for fun. There shouldn’t be a doubt that he wins this and goes on to win the Champion Chase in the future.

However, I’m taking a look at the ‘without Altior market’. Kim Bailey’s Charbel tops that market and he bumped into Altior at Sandown when beaten by six lengths, so that is an indication of how classy the Henderson runner is. This six year old won an enthralling race on his chasing debut beating two good types in Le Prezien and Top Notch showing he is capable. He’s been kept fresh with this in mind but I’m not entirely sure this track will suit him.

Forest Bihan is three from four over fences with his only defeat coming up against the equally smart Waiting Patiently, who unfortunately misses the festival. Brian Ellison’s charge stayed on well after overcoming a bad blunder in the latter stages of that contest. He can’t afford to make any mistakes here but he has been progressive and Aidan Coleman will ride him quietly giving him a chance to find a rhythm. If he finds a groove early on then he can take a hand in the finish ahead of Cloudy Dream once more.
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Forest Bihan w/o Altior (6/1)

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14:50 – Utima Handicap Chase

In my Cheltenham ante-post write up for Picksfromthepaddock I put up Singlefarmpayment as one to follow at the festival and I can’t go against my word.

This seven year old has won on two of three outings at this venue showing he handles the stiff finish and its undulating nature. He was brought down in a Novices’ Handicap Chase here in January when well fancied to run another good race. Now he’s learnt to relax he settles better into his races and he is one to have on side with a race that should be run to suit his style.

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Using the trends I’ve ruled out horses rated over 150+ after the last winner of a mark that high came back in 1983, so that does rule out last year’s winner and top weight Un Temps Pour Tout.

Jonjo O’Neil can get them right for the big occasion and 2014 winner Holywell is lurking on a good mark. He ran well in this last season when second and is 5lb lower today after some poor showings after late. If bouncing back then this festival old-timer could strike.

Vintage Clouds could run a huge price here for a trainer in rampant form. Sue Smith has had seven winners from 17 runners (41% strike rate) in the last 14 days. This seven year old has been the model of consistency despite a minor blip when falling in Grade 2 company. He was third in a Grand National trial at Haydock last time and the handicapper has dropped him 2lb, so he’s well weighted here. The grey will be given a patient ride by Sean Quinlan but could run into the frame.

The Druids Nephew won this race off this mark back in 2015 and Neil Mulholland is a trainer to watch with his handicap chasers during the meeting while he also has The Young Master who should be suited by the drying ground and was on this mark when third last year.

Singlefarmpayment (15/2)
Vintage Clouds (33/1)

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15:30 – Champion Hurdle (Grade 1)

The feature of Day 1 is the Champion Hurdle and it’s a wide-open renewal with no Willie Mullins/Ruby Walsh dominant force after Faugheen and Annie Power of recent years.

Last year’s Neptune second Yanworth is the current favourite and is likely to be better suited by this test rather than the one he encountered when winning the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton. You can’t crib his form but his jumping can be a little untidy and in a race of this status against some of these opponents it could mean to losing ground at a vital stage in a race. Mark Walsh gets the leg up following an injury to Barry Geraghty that has ruled him out of the festival.

It should be three from three this season for Petit Mouchoir but for coming to grief in the Fighting Fifth when going well and just edging into the lead. Henry de Bromhead has found the key to him after getting him from Willie Mullins following the Gigginstown fallout and you feel he’ll make his presence felt in a race of this nature.

The Fighting Fifth has proved a good trial in recent years for the Champion Hurdle and the winner of that race placed here at Cheltenham between 2011-2014. With the way he was travelling you have to feel he would have won that race if not falling.

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He’s since won twice at Leopardstown when making the running. He was triumphant in the Irish Champion Hurdle in January where he galloped all over Nichols Canyon when setting a decent gallop and lasting the trip to hold off a possibly flattered Footpad.

Even though the front-running tactic isn’t one to usually suit Cheltenham he has stamina in his pedigree to suggest he’ll get up the hill and he has an engine to match. The New One may be ridden positively, so it’ll be interesting to see how Bryan Cooper rides the grey.

Nicky Henderson’s pair Buveur D’Air and Brain Power are second and third in the market respectively. The former had two goes at chasing earlier in the campaign and despite winning both he didn’t look best suited to the larger obstacles just yet, so reverted back to hurdles. No horse has come back over hurdles and gone on to win a Champion Hurdle, so that trend is against him.

Brian Power is one Henderson has been talking up in recent weeks. The way he won a Novice Hurdle in March last season suggested there was a bit of quality about him because he did plenty wrong but still won cosily. He’s come into his own it’s fair to say and he showed a good turn of foot to win at Ascot in December. However horses that haven’t ran in the same calendar year as the festival have a poor strike-rate, so that could be against him and he didn’t run particularly well on his only visit to this track in the past even though he has matured a lot since.

As expected the drying ground is seeing support in the market for Brain Power rather than stablemate Buveur D’Air.

At bigger price it is worth pointing out Ch’Tibello, a Scottish Champion Hurdle winner last season and was only a length behind Yanworth in the Kingwell last month. Dan Skelton’s inmate has since had a wind operation, which means we could see more of him in his finishing effort if all has gone to plan. His owners have spoke confidently on his chances in recent days but he’d need to take a big step up if wanting to reverse the form with Yanworth.

Petit Mouchoir (8/1)

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16:10 – Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride Limini instead of stablemate Vroum Vroum Mag on the basis that she is still improving.

You can see that argument and she returned to the track after a 298-day break to see off Apple’s Jade when quickening up well after the final flight. She has festival winning form when winning the Mares’ Novices’ event on its inaugural running and she is the one they all have to beat for a yard that has dominated this race since its inception.

Vroum Vroum Mag toiled to victory at Doncaster when only beating Midnight Jazz by a head. She is defending her crown but it’s far more competitive this time around. In December she was beaten on her return to the track by a narrow margin and despite the quality we know she has is one I’d take on to possibly miss out on finishing in a place.

Apple’s Jade does have work to do to reverse form with Limini but I can’t see her not placing in this. She had to make her own running when beaten last month and it is unlikely she’ll have to do the donkeywork here. The five year old should really have won the Fighting Fifth but was inconvenienced by the fall of Petit Mouchoir. She rallied well late on under pressure and over this trip would have been the winner. Gordon Elliott has put the tongue-tie on for the first time and that should help to bring out a strong finishing effort.

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A fly in the Irish ointment could prove to be Briery Queen. She was behind Lifeboat Mona and Midnight Jazz in the listed Mares’ race at Sandown but she deserves credit for that effort because I’m not entirely sure the track would have played to her strengths. That was her fifth attempt going right-handed and is yet to win despite a few good placed efforts, so coming to this left-handed course could see her in a better light with all four wins going this way round. Noel Williams’ inmate has a course and distance win to her name and this mare could be looked at to sneak into a place at a big price.

Apple’s Jade (9/2)

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16:50 – National Hunt Challenge Cup

The four-miler for Amateur riders is a race where you generally look for the ‘bigger’ names and the betting is a solid guide.

Jamie Codd is onboard A Genie In Abottle for Noel Meade and he has ran like he’d make a decent stayer on good ground, so the drying weather will be in his favour. He has been well touted for the contest. Edwulf has had jumping issues in the past but he won well on heavy ground at Naas last time. Last year’s winning jcokey Derek O’Connor is on board and is another name to look out for.

Beware The Bear has won his last four and has definitely suggested that a strong test of stamina would suit him, especially with the way he won at Newbury on the last day. Sam Waley-Cohen won this back in 2009 and is one of the top amateurs in the field.

Champers On Ice ran better than his sixth place finish suggest here in January. That trip was very inadequate for him and he produced a strong finishing effort after never really being put in the race. He holds some decent hurdles form from last season and has gone well over fences. David Pipe has added the tongue-tie and he is a big player in this race.

However it’s a race there could be one to creep into it at a big price and one whose stamina has already been seen in abundance is Dancing Shadow. He romped home at Doncaster in December to get off the mark then he arguably stepped it up once more to win the Edinburgh National over this trip. He was ridden quietly before coming into contention late on and won that in decent style. This is a step-up in class for Victor Dartnall’s runner but he’s a sound jumper and ticks plenty of other boxes.

Dancing Shadow on his way to victory at Doncaster. Image: Tote Ireland Blog

Bigbadjohn snatched victory from Flintham at Ascot in a Grade 2 chase last time and Rebecca Curtis’ charge should go well by the way he finished that race. There is stamina in his pedigree and a bold show should be expected. Flintham might be better suited on deep ground, which he won’t be getting. He is well-related though being a brother to Carruthers, who won over 3m4f and a half-brother to Gold Cup winner Coneygree.

A horse that hasn’t shown too much over fences so far is Missed Approach. He won on heavy ground at Lingfield three starts ago but hasn’t done much since. He is one that should stay and Warren Greatrex has put the cheekepieces on. There is potential there and he could prove to be better than what he’s shown, especially in a well-run race.

Dancing Shadow (28/1)

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17:30 – Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase

There are plenty of potential angles into the closing race on day one. Some of them point to Zamdy Man because JP McManus owned runners and top weights are two positives. This eight year old has won three times this season all over 2m and is stepped up in trip but I do like the form of those contests, especially the way he beat a solid yardstick in The Dutchman at Newcastle last time. Venetia Williams has her horses in fine fettle and he could prove a player.

I like the Dan Skelton pair here but the preference is for Two Taffs. He ran over an inadequate trip last time and on ground that didn’t suit, so I’m happy to put a line through that. His previous two efforts over fences were encouraging and the return to this trip is a big plus. Cheekpieces and a tongue-tie have been added in a bid to give this seven year old further improvement and first-time headgear has proved a profitable angle, especially in this race.

Cheekpieces could improve Two Taffs (left). Image: John Grossick

Foxtail Hill has won his last two when able to dictate from the front. That’s something that could leave him vulnerable if trying that tactic once more because there are plenty of other pace angles in this big field. His win here in January has been franked with the second and third have won since. The stable form has to be a slight concern with Nigel Twiston-Davies only having one winner since the Betfair Hurdle.

Alan Fleming’s Tully East is back in a handicap, which could see him in a better light. He was a well-beaten second in a Grade 3 Novice Chase last time beaten by a nice type who won again on Sunday. He was a 50/1 fourth in the Martin Pipe last season and is one to have on the shortlist here.

I’ll go out on a whim and say that Deans Road shouldn’t be underestimated. Henry de Bromhead is a shrewd cookie and is a very good trainer of chasers. This eight year old hasn’t been seen since finishing second in a Grade 3 in October and he travelled quite well throughout the race but a mistake at the last all but cost him any chance of closing on Westerner Lady. He has gone well before after winning off the back of a 132-day break and he ran well behind a smart type in a bumper on the back of a 230-day absence. At 33/1 he is a huge price given they’ll go a good gallop and he should travel well for a long way.

Two Taffs (12/1)
Deans Road (33/1)